Morocco’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow by 3.8% in 2025 after an increase of 3% estimated in 2024, following a moderate recovery in the agricultural sector and the continued performance of non-agricultural activities, according to the High -Plan Commission (HCP).
These forecasts take into account the expected increase in taxes on net subsidy products of 5% in 2025 after 5.7% in 2024, indicates the HCP which has just published its 2025 forecast economic budget.
In value terms, GDP growth is expected to increase from 4.5% in 2024 to 5.9% in 2025, giving rise to inflation, measured by the implicit GDP index of 2.1% in 2025 after 1.5% expected in 2024, specifies the same source.
Recovery of the primary sector in 2025 after its contraction in 2024
The 2024/2025 agricultural campaign should be characterized by relatively more favorable climatic conditions than those of the previous campaign which experienced a severe rainfall deficit, leading to cereal production limited to 31.2 million quintals (MQx).
Thus, agricultural added value should evolve by 4.1% in 2025, under the assumption of cereal production below average, after a decline of 5% estimated in 2024, estimates the HCP.
Taking into account an increase in the maritime fishing sector of 6.5% in 2025 after an estimated 3.8% in 2024, the primary sector should improve by 4.2% in 2025, after a decrease of 4.6%. % estimated in 2024, thus contributing positively by 0.4 points to the growth of Gross Domestic Product after a negative contribution of 0.5 points in 2024.
Continued good performance of non-agricultural activities
Non-agricultural activities would have shown an increase of 3.8% in 2024 and should evolve by 3.6% in 2025, supported by the continued dynamics of the construction sector, mining activities, and industrial activities, as well as by the continuation the good performance of trade, tourism and transport activities.
Thus, industrial activity, representing 59% of secondary value added on average between 2019 and 2023, should experience an increase of 3.7% in 2025 after an expected improvement of 4% in 2024.
In 2025, activities in the construction sector should continue to progress with growth of 3.8%, instead of 4.2% estimated in 2024 after a decline of 0.4% in 2023.
-Furthermore, mining activity should continue to strengthen with growth of 5.9%, supported by the continued increase in market production of phosphate.
The secondary sector should show an added value increasing by 3.8% in 2025, after 5.1% estimated in 2024, thus contributing 0.9 points to national economic growth instead of 1.2 points in 2024.
The tertiary sector, mainly oriented towards the domestic market, should continue to support economic growth in 2025, with an increase of 3.5% after 3.2% forecast in 2024.
This change should be attributable to the improvement in non-market services of 3.2% in 2025 instead of 3.4% estimated in 2024, and in market services of 3.6% in 2025 instead of 3.2% expected. in 2024.
Commerce activity, whose added value represents 19% of the tertiary sector on average for the period 2019-2023, is expected to increase at a sustained rate of nearly 2.5% in 2024 and 2025, in line with growth. of economic activity.
The growth in services provided to businesses should stand at 3.8% in 2025, thanks to the resumption of activity in the secondary sector. In addition, real estate activities are expected to improve by 2.2% in 2025, benefiting from the revival of construction activity.
Concerning the added value of the tourism sector, it should improve by 7.4% in 2025, instead of 7.7% expected in 2024 after a rebound of 23.5% recorded in 2023, following the exceptional performance of arrivals and tourist revenues thanks in particular to the organization of international events and the efforts made to promote the destination of Morocco and improve its accessibility.
For transport and warehousing services, their added value should increase by 5.9% in 2025 instead of the 4.4% expected in 2024. This dynamic should be supported by the continued increase in air and maritime traffic, thanks to in particular the continued performance of exports of rock phosphate, its derivatives and transport equipment products.
