Maroc Telecom has gone through a difficult period since the pandemic, marked by a complex regulatory and competitive environment. However, the historic operator is moving back up the slope, slowly but surely. Over the first nine months of 2024, activity is stable and covers several dynamics: In Morocco, revenues are declining due to the Mobile and Fixed segments, while Data and FTTH are growing by double digits. Internationally, the Group’s subsidiaries, under the MOOV Africa banner, maintained overall growth with an increase of 1.1% in their revenues, driven by the good performance of mobile Data (+15.7% at a rate of constant exchange rate) and the improvement of Mobile Money services (+6.5%).
Operationally, IAM’s margins experienced a slight deterioration. The Group’s consolidated adjusted EBITDA stood at MAD 8.93 billion, down 3.3% compared to the end of September 2023. Earnings capacity was heavily impacted by the settlement of the dispute with WANA Corporate, reducing the RNPG published at just 318 million MAD, down 92.2% year-on-year.
At the financial level, net debt increased by 32.1% compared to September 30, 2023, reaching 23 billion dirhams at the end of September 2024. The Net Debt/EBITDA ratio thus stands at 1.2x, due to the necessary financing. to honor the payment of 6 billion dirhams gross imposed by the Court in the context of the dispute with WANA.
Better prospects for 2025
-Despite this tumultuous period, Maroc Telecom could benefit from short-term recovery opportunities. The dispute with WANA having now been resolved, the operator should gradually return to its normative profitability. According to the consensus of analysts drawn up by Boursenews, the stock is valued at 113 DH (consensus average), representing an upside potential of nearly 29% compared to the closing price of January 7, 2025. This forecast is based on a gradual stabilization of domestic revenues and an acceleration in the development of African subsidiaries.
As for the imminent deployment of 5G, it does indeed represent additional pressure for the sector, but Maroc Telecom can count on a network already largely compatible with this technology, according to BKGR analysts, which would limit the investment effort necessary for this technology which should begin to be deployed this year.
However, IAM remains facing several uncertainties, including continued regulatory pressure in Morocco and complications in some African markets such as Mali, where tensions with the local government have affected subsidiary MOOV Africa Mali. Despite these challenges, the Moroccan stock market, supported by a positive overall economic outlook, could provide a favorable environment for the stock in the coming months, given its discount and its solid fundamentals in a market in full euphoria.
