Announced for so long, we no longer believed it! However, the drop in the price of electricity in France is well planned for February 2025, encouraging news for many households. This 14% reduction in the regulated sales tariff (TRV) for electricity will concern around 22.4 million homes and businesses, or 56% of subscribers.
An increase for certain?
However, it is important to note that not all consumers will automatically benefit from this reduction. Customers who are at the regulated EDF tariff or who have subscribed to an offer indexed to this tariff will see their bill reduced. For those who have opted for a market offer from an alternative supplier, the situation is less clear and they could even face an increase in their bill!
Indeed, the forecast drop is mainly explained by the reduction in electricity prices on wholesale markets. The price per megawatt hour has increased from around 1000 euros at the height of the crisis to 65-70 euros currently. This significant drop in supply costs makes it possible to pass on the reduction to consumers, despite the end of the tariff shield.
It is important to note that this 14% reduction already includes the planned increase in the domestic tax on final electricity consumption (TICFE), which will increase from 22 euros to 33.70 euros per megawatt hour for individuals at the same date. Despite this tax increase, the government ensures that the majority of French people will pay less for their electricity in 2025 compared to the last two years.
For an average household, this reduction should result in a saving of around 200 euros per year. However, the exact impact will vary depending on each household's consumption and the type of contract taken out.
We advise you to check the type of your contract and compare the available offers to optimize your electricity bill. Those who are not currently on the regulated tariff can return there if they wish, by contacting EDF customer service.
A significant impact on French public finances
The government's decision not to increase electricity taxes as initially planned in the 2025 finance bill will result in a loss of revenue for the state. The government is thus renouncing an “increase” in excise duties which should have brought in around 3 billion euros to the state coffers.
Despite this loss, the State will still benefit from additional revenue linked to the end of the tariff shield. The internal tax on final electricity consumption (TICFE) will gradually return to its pre-crisis level, i.e. 33.70 euros per megawatt hour for individuals, compared to 22 euros currently. This increase should bring around 3.8 billion euros to the State.
Overall, the impact on public finances will be less significant than initially expected. The government will in fact have to be content with the revenue linked to the end of the tariff shield, estimated at 3.8 billion euros, instead of the 6.8 billion euros initially planned…
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