Antony Blinken, head of American diplomacy, expresses optimism about a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza before the end of his mandate. Despite the challenges, he highlights the need for a lasting solution for peace and stability in the region. What future for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?
As his term draws to a close, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expressing cautious optimism about the chances of reaching a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. During a speech before the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, he stressed the imperative need to end hostilities and allow populations to return to normal life.
Despite several failed attempts in the past, Blinken refuses to be discouraged. “I’m hopeful. It has to be. We are going to use every minute of every day of every week that we have left to try to get things done,” he said with determination. His objective is clear: to obtain a ceasefire before leaving office on January 20, the date on which Donald Trump will take the reins of American diplomacy.
A deadly conflict that continues
Triggered on October 7, 2023 by an unprecedented Hamas attack, the war in Gaza has caused numerous victims on both sides. According to official Israeli data compiled by AFP, 1,208 people lost their lives on the Israeli sidemostly civilians. They also include hostages who died or were killed in captivity in the Palestinian enclave. A total of 251 people were kidnapped on Israeli soil that fateful day, 96 of whom still remain in Hamas hands.
On the Palestinian side, the toll is even heavier. According to figures from the Ministry of Health of the Hamas government in Gaza, deemed reliable by the UN, at least 45,097 Palestinians were killed during the vast military campaign of retaliation led by Israel. Here too, these are mainly civilians trapped in a conflict that is beyond their control.
A weakened but still influential Hamas
For Antony Blinken, several factors offer a glimmer of hope in this dark picture. He believes in particular that the relative weakening of Iran makes Hamas more inclined to negotiate. However, he is careful not to declare victory too quickly, aware of the complexity of the situation on the ground.
“I don’t want to risk giving probabilities (…) It has to succeed. People need to go home.”
Antony Blinken, US Secretary of State
Because even weakened, Hamas retains significant influence in Gaza. And Blinken is well aware of this. According to him, it is not in Israel’s interest to remain in this territory indefinitely. “If they stay, they will face an insurgency for years. It’s not in their interest,” he analyzes.
Towards a credible alternative to Hamas?
So, what solution should we consider? For the head of American diplomacy, it is imperative to find a credible alternative to Hamas’ power in Gaza. “Gaza therefore has to translate into something different that ensures that Hamas is not in power, that Israel does not have to be in power and that there is something coherent that happens after that,” he said. he.
But the task promises to be arduous. Because since its takeover of Gaza in 2007, Hamas has considerably strengthened its hold on the territory, to the detriment of the Palestinian Authority of President Mahmoud Abbas, although recognized by the international community. Despite several attempts at inter-Palestinian reconciliation, the gap between the two camps remains deep.
The unknown Trump
Added to this is another major unknown: the coming to power of Donald Trump. If the president-elect promised unconditional support for Israel, he also expressed his desire to reach the “ultimate agreement” between Israelis and Palestinians. But his sometimes contradictory statements and his unpredictability cast doubt on his real strategy in the Middle East.
In this context, Antony Blinken’s efforts to secure a ceasefire at the last minute are of crucial importance. Even if he refuses to make any predictions, he knows that every day counts in trying to ease the suffering of civilian populations and pave the way for lasting de-escalation. An immense challenge, commensurate with the stakes of this conflict which has lasted too long.
