Emmanuel Macron is already looking for a replacement for Michel Barnier

Michel Barnier and Emmanuel Macron, in , November 11, 2024. LUDOVIC MARIN / VIA REUTERS

Emmanuel Macron was on the plane to Riyadh, capital of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, when Michel Barnier called him late Monday morning to warn him that he would hold his government accountable that afternoon. even on the Social Security financing bill. The Elysée seemed taken by surprise by the new political situation, while the head of state will return from his state visit to the Persian Gulf on Wednesday, the day when the motion of censure must be submitted to the vote of deputies.

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Is Marine Le Pen trying to raise the stakes until the last minute or is she pursuing a strategy of chaos? The entourage of the Head of State was still wondering, at midday, about the determination of the far-right leader to follow through with her approach and to mix the voices of the National Rally (RN) with those from the left to bring down the government. “If she censors, she cuts herself off from all the electorate which would allow her to break the glass ceiling in 2027”predicted someone close to the head of state.

But the doubt was removed in the afternoon. The left and the far right will vote on the motion of censure in unison. Opening a political crisis which precipitates the return of the head of state to the front line. Marine Le Pen herself stated, in front of the cameras, at the Palais-Bourbon, the three “constitutional levers” at the disposal of the President of the Republic to respond to the crisis: dissolution, “but he already used it” and cannot have recourse to it again “before next June” ; reshuffling, “but we can wonder about the usefulness, at a time when the government could only be a minority” ; and finally, “his own resignation”.

Three months of “demanding cooperation”

The leader of France Insoumise (LFI) Jean-Luc Mélenchon, for his part, has been theorizing for months the dismissal of Emmanuel Macron. “If the government of Michel Barnier falls, I think that the question that will be asked, in truth, is that of the departure of the President of the Republic”affirmed his lieutenant Manuel Bompard, Sunday on CNews. The LFI coordinator sent a letter last week to the Minister of the Interior, Bruno Retailleau, to ask him to specify the “organizational arrangements” of an early presidential election, worrying in particular about the tight deadlines provided for by the Constitution.

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The socialists, on the other hand, are not calling for the resignation of the head of state. “ Unlike LFI, we have no phantasmagoria around Macron's resignation », assures the president of the PS group in the Senate, Patrick Kanner. On the other hand, last week we saw centrist Charles de Courson, general budget rapporteur, pleading for an early presidential election. Just like the Les Républicains (LR) mayor of , Jean-François Copé, who, after having campaigned for a long time for an alliance between LR and Renaissance, is now calling for the resignation of the President of the Republic. “Because of the original sin of dissolution, everything is blocked today, no law can pass”, alarms the former budget minister.

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