Bastien resists. Aside comment from a Bastien Marchive supporter, this Sunday, June 30, 2024, in a polling station at Niort City Hall. The outgoing MP is doing even better than holding his own. Not only did he not sink with the outgoing majority, but his performance is unexpected. In Niort, he is neck and neck with the socialist (NFP) Nathalie Lanzi, 39.52% against 39.61%. And across the constituency, he finished with 40.23% of the votes cast, against 32.80% for his left-wing challenger, with the RN coming in third with Dorothée Champeau (24.63%).
A certain electorate was able to see in him a safe haven
Even more blatant progress if we look at the number of votes: in the 2022 legislative elections, 13,741 voters had slipped a ballot in their name into the ballot box, this Sunday June 30 there were 25,257. The outgoing MP achieved scores that might have seemed unexpected for an elected official who sat in Emmanuel Macron’s majority.
In Magné, who had placed Raphaël Glucksmann in the lead in the Europeans, it exceeds 45% compared to 28.42% for Nathalie Lanzi and 24.50% for Dorothée Champeau. Other striking results: more than 44% in Échiré in the inner suburbs of Niort, more than 40% in Aiffres, Coulonges-sur-l’Autize or Prahecq.
Leitmotif
The strategy he adopted as soon as he announced his candidacy paid off: standing out from Emmanuel Macron, presenting himself as “free and independent”with the sole leitmotif of “defense of the Republic”sending all his opponents back to the camp of “extremists”. And stripped of all the trappings of national politics, playing the card of the elected representative on the ground. The label assigned to it by the prefecture sums up this positioning: “Various center”. Obviously, an electorate frightened by the ambient chaos saw in him a safe haven. Another factor that worked in his favor: in the absence of a Les Républicains candidate, the classic right-wing electorate could only support his name.
The votes in the European elections of June 9 and those in this first round of the legislative elections do not overlap. The New Popular Front managed to rally many more voters than the Nupes did in 2022: 20,591 against 12,938. It is true that two years ago, the candidacy of the outgoing deputy Guillaume Chiche, a social democrat disappointed with Macronism, was able to capture part of the left-wing electorate. Still, the choice to nominate a socialist in 2024 rather than an LFI as in 2022, will not have been enough to make the difference.
On Sunday, July 7, the election will be played out in a three-way race: Bastien Marchive, Nathalie Lanzi, Dorothée Champeau. The incumbent is approaching it from a position of strength. The RN continues to capitalize. Its candidate, already in the running in 2022, won 15,461 votes. Compared to 5,869 just two years ago.
