The president of the National Rally likes predictions. Throughout the European campaign, Jordan Bardella predicted that Marion Maréchal, his Reconquête competitor, would score less than 5% on June 9 and would have no elected representatives in Brussels. He took the same gamble for François-Xavier Bellamy, Republican candidate. Upon arrival, both were slightly above. Too bad, he raises, like in poker. A heavyweight from Parliament acts as dealer. A few days before the legislative elections, this elected official surveyed Jordan Bardella on the plausible hypothesis of a relative majority in the National Assembly for the RN and the troops of Eric Ciotti, its new ally. The candidate for Matignon told him he could convince 30 additional deputies to join him after the second round. “That seems like a lot to me… More like 20 or 25, right?” moderates his interlocutor, a little stunned by the confidence of the nationalist leader. Which maintains: « Non, 30. »
Exclusive poll: Jordan Bardella’s party close to absolute majority
This conviction is nourished, in part, by Éric Ciotti. “Her rallying opened a door, she created a dynamic”, rejoices a close friend of Marine Le Pen. By sealing an agreement with the far right the day after the dissolution, the boss of LR shook the political scene. It doesn’t matter to him to be booed for weeks by his former friends. Three times, the courts kept him at the head of his party despite the exclusions pronounced by its executives. This status quo has fueled confusion on the ground, where a fraction of right-wing voters have wondered why there are still candidates for Les Républicains “independent” even as the leader makes a pact with the RN. Confident, Éric Ciotti slipped this Monday to a close friend that LR personalities have reconnected with him after refusing to follow him.
Rotten pot
Initially, Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen could only note the meager numbers provided by the outgoing deputy of the Alpes-Maritimes. Among the 61 members of his parliamentary group, only two crossed the Rubicon, including him. “We expected that there would be a few more LR deputies who would join the adventure,” admits Renaud Labaye, former secretary general of the RN group at the Palais-Bourbon and right-hand man of the boss. But the adventure is not over! » To fill his contingent, spread over 69 constituencies, Éric Ciotti had to draw from a pool ranging from Jeunes LR to Reconquête via the networks of the liberal-conservative billionaire Pierre-Édouard Stérin or those of Alexandre Pesey, in charge of the Institute of political training, school of executives favorable to the union of the rights.
The frontist leadership does not care about this medley, even if it may have inspired some sarcasm. According to those close to Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen, their work with Éric Ciotti is done on good terms. The two men prepared together their joint – and disconcerting – presentation to Medef on June 20. Social-statist for more than a decade under the aegis of Jean-Marie Le Pen’s daughter, here is the RN embodied by a young MEP ready for any facade renovations, sharing the poster with a very rigid liberal. Everyone has taken a step towards the other, particularly on the pension reform adopted by Élisabeth Borne. Jordan Bardella wants to repeal it eventually, without upsetting the balance too much. Previously in favor of a legal retirement age of 65 and an alignment of public sector schemes with those of the private sector, Éric Ciotti has got in tune. While claiming to cultivate one’s difference.
A group for Ciotti
Because, let it be said, the National Rally has also changed. It is trading its hegemonic reflexes for a coalition spirit. “The goal is for Eric Ciotti to obtain between 20 and 30 constituencies”, specifies the treasurer of the RN, Kévin Pfeffer, who participated in the negotiations on the fiefdoms to be allocated to the Southerner. If this objective is achieved, the former Fillonist will have his own parliamentary group. “This will be our Horizons,” sums up an outgoing Marinist MP. “There could be some tensions on economic issues, but those who joined Ciotti were already close to us. Furthermore, it is easier to work with people who have not been members of the Front for twenty years. Before, it was the party, nothing but the party, only the party. This is one of our final metamorphoses.” Like what prevailed – for a time – between Renaissance and the troops of Édouard Philippe during the previous legislature, joint meetings could be considered. Eric Ciotti’s autonomy will be more difficult with fewer than 15 deputies, the threshold to be reached to form a group.
This will not prevent him from being appointed minister if Jordan Bardella enters Matignon. Many quickly pointed him towards the Interior, a position he has dreamed of for so many years. “It’s reserved for someone in whom Marine and Jordan have complete confidence,” recalls a senior leader of the National Rally. The one who has long been reduced to his status of “Mr. Security” Sarkozy’s leader is aware of this: it is not good to be a last-minute rookie to go to Beauvau. The option of the Ministry of Justice, where he could apply his repressive penal software, seems more likely. Others see themselves there, certainly. The lawyer Thibault de Montbrial, who cultivates his networks among the police and the hard right, is one of the names mentioned for a sovereign position. “It’s only him who believes it, and whatever the majority”, mocks an advisor to Marine Le Pen. As for Louis Aliot, mayor of Perpignan and loyal to the former member of parliament for Pas-de-Calais, he could be sent to the large overseas ministry that Jordan Bardella wants to create.
LR and Liot deputies
The entourage of the leader, who will have control over the casting, assumes it without hesitation: the RN does not have the resources, on its own, to populate the executive. “There won’t only be politicians in government,” explains a Le Penist baron. “We’ll need experts, people from civil society, senior civil servants… Otherwise, people will say that it’s the “RN-State.” Enough to fuel the fair of rumors and denials, like that of Philippe Villin, the financier that some mariners would have liked to see running the Bercy fortress. “I have never been approached by the RN for any ministerial position and it is not my plan to become a minister, whatever the colour of the government”he reaffirms to La Tribune Sunday.
Another option is now circulating: that of Chirac’s Jean-Pierre Denis, former deputy secretary general of the Élysée and head of Crédit Mutuel Arkéa for thirteen years. “It would be neither absurd nor crazy compared to the markets, which would have someone to talk to there,” agrees a source who has Marine Le Pen’s ear. “We need to fill the skills gaps that are honestly recognized in our country.” This is where we come back to Éric Ciotti and Jordan Bardella’s optimism. Since the dissolution, the number one of the National Rally has repeated that, in the absence of an absolute majority (289 seats) in the lower house, he will refuse to be Prime Minister. On Wednesday morning, during a strategic meeting, Marine Le Pen’s inner circle admitted that beyond 270 things would be possible.
To bridge the gap, the National Front will reach out to some LR members who campaigned under their own colours. “On the right, they all want to be ministers,” laughs an RN advisor. In addition, there is pressure from their teams, the collaborators who want the reins of the State to build up an address book before moving to the private sector. » Of the « discussions » are even underway with two members of the late centrist and overseas group Liot. Charles de Courson and Bertrand Pancher deny any contact, without being able to say the same for their former colleagues. “What we are asking is that they simply vote for confidence and the budget”plays down a lieutenant of Jordan Bardella. Whatever they are, these additional forces could prove to be as crucial as the dowry of the Ciotts. From there to imagining an internal competition before its time…
