Triangular in the early legislative elections in Cantal: is it possible and under what conditions?

Will the National Rally confirm its historic score in the European elections (33.67% in Cantal), which led to the dissolution of the Assembly? Will the two right-wing deputies, Vincent Descœur and Jean-Yves Bony, regain their seats? Will the presidential majority be swept away? And what about the left, united under the banner of the New Popular Front, in a department anchored on the right? Two days before the first round of historic legislative elections and in a political landscape that has been turned upside down since Sunday, June 9, there are many uncertainties in both constituencies.
In the department, 115,070 voters are called to the polls this Sunday. They will have to choose between thirteen candidates: six in the first constituency (Aurillac) and seven in the second (Mauriac-Saint-Flour). And they will have toient to be more numerous to vote. In decline since 2002 (53.80% in 2022), participation this time is expected, as everywhere, to increase significantly, suggesting the return of triangulars, which has not happened since 1973 in Cantal.

This configuration would shake up the balance of power, but it remains conditional on several factors, starting with participation. In fact, a candidate can run in the second round when he obtains at least 12.5% ​​of the votes of registered voters in his constituency in the first round. If participation amounts to 50%, they must therefore obtain 25% of the votes cast. On the other hand, if this participation rises to 60% as expected, this threshold falls to 20.8% and even to 18% if it rises to 65%.
The low number of candidates in the running, which will limit the dispersion of votes, can also favor this scenario. However, this remains rare. Illustration: in Cantal, the last triangular election in the legislative elections dates back to… 1973.
Since this election, Cantal could have experienced another triangular, in 1993, in the first constituency (district of Aurillac). But the qualified candidate, Annie Brunet-Fuster, a dissident from the RPR, withdrew after the first round. As the communist Michel Leymarie did in 1976.
There could even have been a quinquangular in the second constituency (Mauriac and Saint-Flour districts) in 1962! Five candidates were then qualified for the second round (two of those qualified had withdrawn after the first round, in order to favor another candidate). But at the time, the threshold was much lower, since 5% of the votes of registered voters were required.