Will France experience an Indian summer in 2024 similar to the one it experienced in 2023? In other words, will it be nice and warm until the end of September? Although it is obviously difficult, if not impossible, to answer this question with precision, initial elements nevertheless suggest that heat could well be on the agenda for the coming weeks, if not the coming months.
Towards a warmer than normal quarter
“In France, warmer than normal conditions are slightly more likely for the quarter”explains Météo France, in its bulletin presenting the trends for the next three months. “This probability is more marked in the south of the country”continues the meteorological institute.
This is also what is implied in the image below. Taken from the seasonal forecasts of the European Copernicus programme, it indicates that the temperature anomaly (difference with seasonal norms) expected over the next quarter is more marked in the southern part of the country.
In detail, the scenario “warmer than normal” has a 70% chance of occurring in the south of the country (compared to 33% in a scenario where no trend is detected). In the northern half, it has a 50% chance of appearing.
Nevertheless, warns Météo France, “For this quarter, confidence is limited, particularly because of the end of the phenomenon The boy on the tropical Pacific »a development that could have repercussions as far as our latitudes. The forecasts published by Météo Villes and The Weather Channel also suggest that the time of the next quarter is relatively difficult to determine, particularly for the end of the period. Despite these uncertainties, however, a body of evidence suggests that August will be warmer than July and September.
No indication of possible heat waves
As Météo France points out, these three-month trends “do not allow us to predict the details of the weather conditions for the coming months day by day, or even week by week”.
A quarter predicted to be possibly warmer than normal may well be marked by cooler spells, depending on the weather pattern at the time.
Conversely, these forecasts should not suggest that heat waves will occur automatically, since they also depend on specific weather patterns. However, the backdrop of global warming makes them mathematically more likely, and more intense.
A quarter that promises to be dry in the South
As for rainfall, Météo France indicates that a “dry scenario is preferred in the south of the country”. In this region, this scenario would in fact have a 50% chance of occurring.
“The most likely scenario is a shift of disturbances towards the north over Western Europe in connection with more frequent anticyclonic situations over the southwest of Europe.”, details the meteorological institute. The latter specifies however that, these trends being understood on the scale of the quarter, rainy periods (storms in particular) can quite easily occur occasionally.
On the other hand, as is often the case, “no trend is emerging in the north of France”.
