After a week of summer, cool weather and showers will make a comeback in France to start the month of July. Unfortunately, this could last a long time: is there really no hope? Would a rotten start to July be unprecedented?
Sorry to spoil the mood, but the medium and long-term weather forecasts are clear: after this short, dry, hot, long-awaited summer break, the flow will turn again to the West or North-West sector at the end of the weekend (after the storms), with the key coolness, disturbances, rain and showersa pattern that we have known all too well since last November…
And almost autumnal weather linked to a depression which will be positioned over the United Kingdom and which will visit France, possibly by isolating itself as a cold drop. Only the Mediterranean regions seem to be sparedand will undoubtedly retain sunshine and temperatures well above 25 degrees, under the influence of the mistral and the tramontane.
A heavy trend until mid-July?
At the beginning of next week, maximum temperatures will sometimes be 4 to 7 degrees below seasonal norms, notably Tuesday afternoon on a South-West/North-East axis. And if we look at seasonal trends, this cool and wet period could last until at least July 14.
Should we believe it? A priori yesbecause all the models agree for these first days of July: barring a turnaround in the situation, freshness and humidity will return to the country.
More all is not lost though! Let’s remember this summer week: 7 days ago, almost no model predicted the persistence of heat until this Thursday and no value was expected to exceed 30°C repeatedly over the northern half. We know the result… Beyond 3-4 days, cold drops can play spoilsport in the forecast models.
Rotten summers are still possible!
As for seasonal trends, they do not remain only 60 or 65% reliable at most, so there remains at least 1 in 3 chance that the sun and heat will prevail again before July 14 : hope keeps us alive!
On July 17, 2000, the temperature was only 4°C in the early morning in the Cher department, while the entire northern half of the country was turning the heating back on after several days of rain and cold weather.
However, if we take a look at the weather archiveswe realize thatsuch a “rotten” start to July would not be unprecedentedfar from it, and it remains possible in a context of global warming! You may have forgotten it, but the summers of 2007, 2008, 2011 and 2014 were cool and humidand not just at the beginning of July, but July and August combined, with significant losses for the tourism sector.
On July 19, 2011, we did not exceed 14°C in the afternoon at Paris, while it was snowing from 1700m in the Alps. Finally, the month of July 2000 was terrible for vacationers during the week of July 14with rain and coolness: the northern half of the country turned the heating back on, and the temperature was only 4°C in Cher in the early morning of July 17! Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that…
