Federal negotiations have not really started. But, if Bart De Wever still has to work on several of the potential partners of the “Arizona” coalition (N-VA, MR, CD&V, Vooruit, Les Engagés), he has already sent the party presidents a starting note. What can we read there? Its content was leaked in several Flemish media.
A government for 5 years, a priori…
The first observation is politically important and highlights a change in attitude on the part of the N-VA: Bart De Wever no longer mentions his initial project of setting up a two-year emergency government, having to work in priority on budget balance while planning a major institutional reform.
Indeed, the elections of June 9 have redistributed the political game. The “mini-government” that the N-VA imagined was based on the hypothesis that the PS would remain in power. However, the triumph of the Engagés and the MR opens the way to a new, more coherent majority, allowing the country to be reformed according to a center-right logic. Barring any accidents along the way, the probable “Arizona” coalition should last five years.
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Indirectly, this change perhaps also means that the N-VA has lowered its institutional ambitions. The limited lifespan of the emergency government that Bart De Wever imagined with the PS was linked to the fact that he expected to quickly bring down the government in the event of a lack of state reform.
According to our colleagues at Standardthe “Arizonan” executive should also be on bread and water. The future ministerial team will be reduced. This is logical since, compared to a Vivaldi composed of seven parties, Arizona will only have five. The allocation of political parties should also be revised downwards via the (relatively mild) mechanism of non-indexation.
Suppression of the Senate
One point in De Wever’s note could disturb the MR. Indeed, the nationalist leader takes up the idea of abolishing the Senate. However, Georges-Louis Bouchez, on several occasions, has spoken out in favour of maintaining the upper house of the federal parliament. Even if it means changing its role. This is an element that could set the MR president against the preformer, even if this question does not seem sensitive enough to compromise the possible “Arizona”.
The stars are not yet united to form a federal government: Bart De Wever has an appointment in 15 days with the King
On the very delicate question of the health care budget and the possible savings that could be made there, the text sent by the pre-former to the other party presidents is deliberately imprecise: the growth standard of the health budget will be reviewed at the end of the year. drop. Point. We won’t know any more. The door is therefore left open for future negotiations on the issue. Vooruit, Les Engagés and CD&V have already announced that they will not accept drastic savings in this department.
“The strategic ambiguity” of De Wever’s note
De Wever’s note is equally evasive on the time limitation of unemployment benefits or on future tax reform. We know that Vooruit is asking for a tax on large fortunes, which will have difficulty passing among its potential partners in the “Arizona” majority.
Finally, the N-VA seems to want to increase Belgium’s budgetary contribution to NATO, but the document sent by Bart De Wever does not give precise figures. This is “strategic ambiguity”, as we say in negotiation techniques: not compromising the chances of obtaining a consensus by immediately imposing too precise data on others…
Rousseau destroys the De Wever note
As we can see, Bart De Wever did not take any risks in his note. It remains “exploratory”, indicating that minds were not yet ready enough to trigger the phase of government formation. The proof? On Thursday, Conner Rousseau, who is a candidate for his return to the presidency of Vooruit in the framework of internal elections, was very hard on the “Arizona” project.If we are talking about a centre-right coalition, Vooruit has no place in it”he recalled. According to the Flemish socialist, the points that his political party considers important are only vaguely formulated in De Wever’s note. Conner Rousseau is calling for more clarity in particular with regard to the taxation of large fortunes.
As a reminder, the preformer was given two weeks to act before presenting a new report to King Philippe.
