The legislative election in the third constituency of Lot-et-Garonne is exciting in many ways. Firstly because it marks the return of the outcast, the former champion of the Villeneuve left Jérôme Cahuzac, but also because it reveals the national ambitions of the mayor of Villeneuve-sur-Lot, Guillaume Lepers.
Thierry Breton/SOUTH WEST
The outgoing RN deputy, Annick Cousin, should benefit from the dynamics of her party.
The result of both on Sunday could have a lasting impact on the local political landscape. But for this to happen it will be necessary for both of them to make their way between the two large blocs which will face each other in the electoral ring of this constituency, in the absence of a candidacy from the presidential majority. As for winning the election, it would be necessary for the outgoing MP Annick Cousin, arch favorite for her re-election, to bite the dust. In terms of the dynamics of his party, the RN, this bet is enormous.
The paradox of notoriety
Annabel Perrin
Guillaume Lepers, here alongside his deputy Émeline Rey, is identified by the RN as a real threat.
Reading the figures reveals the nature of the challenge: during the 2022 legislative election, the Tayracaise took the lead in the first round, with more than 9,650 votes (24.96%). During the European elections of June 9, Jordan Bardella gathered more than 16,250 votes (38.4%); and if we add the Reconquest score, the reservoir of the extreme right here almost reaches the threshold of 19,000 votes (44.7%). Colossal.
With the announcement of an increase in participation compared to the 2022 legislative elections, Sunday’s vote, which for many voters is an opportunity for a sanction vote, could well further inflate the RN’s score. Annick Cousin, who refused the slightest debate, is clearly managing her lead.
Loïc Déquier/SO
Jérôme Cahuzac, here in the countryside at the Blanquefort-sur-Briolance market, plays the card of the glorious past.
The left bloc, if we add up the scores of LFI, PS EELV, and PC, totaled a little over 10,700 votes (25.5%). This is, again, a better score than that of Xavier Czapla in 2022 (over 8,870 votes, 22.91%) under the banner of Nupes. The constitution of the New Popular Front and the numerous calls to make it the only useful vote against the RN, make the union of the left, this Nupes bis, the other major bloc against which two candidates will come up against who, paradoxically, enjoy a much greater notoriety than the candidates of the far left and the far right.
In addition to a return that some voters judge, rightly or wrongly, amoral, the former minister and deputy mayor of Villeneuve does not have the same striking force as ten years ago
In truth, the candidacies of Jérôme Cahuzac and Guillaume Lepers are disrupting the game in this corner of the department. From there to being invited to the second round in the position of the one who could thwart the plans of the RN? The difficulty for these two, to varying degrees, is to capture an electorate more sensitive to local considerations than to national issues. An additional difficulty for Jérôme Cahuzac. In addition to a return that some voters judge, rightly or wrongly, amoral, the former minister and deputy mayor of Villeneuve does not have the same striking force as ten years ago. It has neither the militant strength and image of the PS of the time, nor the electoral base of Villeneuve.
What about the voices from the center?
Supported by numerous mayors who are not electoral aircraft carriers, in terms of the size of their municipalities, Jérôme Cahuzac has, during this campaign, played the card of the glorious past by advancing, singularly, his record of ten years ago. The person concerned, a brilliant analyst and orator, promises “to finish the job”, supported by unwavering followers. On Sunday, we will know if the song of nostalgia can be a political field.
Loïc Déquier/SO
Xavier Czapla, here campaigning at the Monsempron-Libos market, had collected 22.91% of the votes in the first round, in 2022, under the Nupes banner.
Guillaume Lepers is crossing another one. The only LR candidate in the department, the mayor of Villeneuve can hardly prosper on the label of a party that delivers a spectacle, that of the tearing apart, appalling in many ways. The first Villeneuve councilor is however identified by the RN as a real threat.
Guillaume Lepers could well draw from this right-wing electorate which has migrated towards the banks of the RN, while having the reservoir of votes of orphaned centrists, for lack of a Renaissance candidate. Reservoir that the Villeneuvois, supported “in a personal capacity” by the MoDem mayor of Agen Jean Dionis, and Jérôme Cahuzac, declared “center left” and close to many Macronists, should argue. Without neither one nor the other, through a rather funny role play, claiming the support of Macronie, for fear of being sanctioned by voters on the right for one, on the left for the other.
With the largest electoral base in the circle, Guillaume Lepers, who has the support of the mayors of Sainte-Livrade and Fumel, will measure, on the evening of the first round, his popularity rating beyond the Villeneuvois perimeter. And will know if he should use his “courage”, which he has made the leitmotif of his campaign, on something other than conquering Annick Cousin’s seat.
