In the Maghreb, the arrival of the RN at the head of the first round of the legislative elections in France makes the promises of its president, Jordan Bardella, a little more tangible in the event of coming to power: abolition of the right of the soil, refusal of high-level positions to dual nationals, restriction of family reunification, tightening of the residence permit regime, expulsion of undocumented immigrants. “We now know for sure that a third of French people are won over by the program of this movement, not to say its ideas,” fears the TSA news site, the leading French-speaking Algerian media.
On the Moroccan side too, the “apprehensions exist”admits the information site 360, close to the government, firstly on “a new restrictive and even punitive visa policy”even though the thaw was underway with the outgoing government. For Rabat, having 1.5 million Moroccans (including 670,000 dual nationals and 46,000 students) on French soil is anything but neutral. The risk exists to a lesser extent for Tunisia, which has already learned to go through Giorgia Meloni’s Italy for its relations with the EU.
The prospect of an RN government is not, however, a shock, underlines Luis Martinez, Maghreb specialist and research director at Sciences Po. “In the Maghreb, most people are not afraid. On the contrary, these elections confirm what they already thought of France, whose approach was already judged as colonial and backward-looking. For them, as for the countries of the Sahel, the truth is finally revealed,” love the expert
Preparing for the breakup
For Algiers, the break with France is not desirable from an economic point of view, but it would not lead to anything insurmountable, if we are to believe the data from the French Ministry of Economy. Imports of agricultural products, traditionally important, have experienced a free fall of 73.1% between 2022 and 2023, a drop offset by the purchase of Russian cereals. Conversely, the import of hydrocarbons into France has jumped by 15.3%. “Algeria has the ideal profile of the right target, the conflict could be political, memorial, but difficult financial: the country is also entering the campaign, with a presidential election on September 7, and the authorities have the possibility of replacing French imports within three months, if they wish,” says Luis Martinez.
Among the most discussed proposals of the RN: the repeal of the Franco-Algerian agreement of 1968, which the Macronists had tried to reform. The pure and clear suppression of this text designed during the Trente Glorieuses to meet the needs of France’s workforce, but progressively emptied of its substance over the years, risks straining a relationship that was not without tensions.
The idea was coined by Xavier Driencourt, a former French ambassador to Algeria whose name is circulating as a candidate for the post of Minister of Foreign Affairs in the event of an RN government. He shares with Marine Le Pen’s party the conviction that it is appropriate to engage “a balance of power” with Algeria, from “turn off the visa tap”, and to make no concessions on the tragedies of the past.
With an RN in power, goodbye, therefore, to the work of French and Algerian historians whom Emmanuel Macron had asked to work on reconciliation. Buried, the main recommendations of the group of researchers. The restitution of objects that belonged to the Emir Abdelkader, a national figure who fought against the conquest of Algeria in the middle of the 19th century, is not likely to happen soon. And the friendship treaty that the French president planned to sign with his Algerian counterpart in the fall already seems to be on the rocks.
Stronger ties with Morocco
This influential diplomat in conservative and nationalist circles does not place Algeria and Morocco on the same level. During the campaign, Jordan Bardella highlighted the good relations of his movement with the Cherifian kingdom. But this is mainly due to France’s economic interests, according to Luis Martinez. “Morocco is the CAC 40, we can’t touch it,” summarizes the expert about French investments.
This may to a lesser extent be due to the personal history of the candidate for the post of prime minister. Jordan Bardella, who readily evokes his Italian origins to praise the principle of assimilation, speaks more rarely of his links with Algeria and Morocco. According to the revelations of the Algerian daily The Young Independent and the magazine Young Africahis grandfather, Guérino Bardella, now lives in Casablanca, and converted to Islam, before marrying a Moroccan woman for the second time. But it was from his first union with a woman of Algerian origin that Olivier Bardella, Jordan’s father, came before the couple separated.
Find the results of the first round of the 2024 legislative elections, municipality by municipality.
