After the Europeans, the outgoing Renaissance deputy Patrick Vignal is caught in a vice like never before between an RN strengthened in Lunelois and the Pays de l’Or, and a triumphant Popular Front in Montpellier.
Can he, once again, beat the odds? For his 4th candidacy for the mandate of deputy for the 9th constituency, can the outgoing Renaissance Patrick Vignal reverse the heavy trend of the European elections? A vote which does not place him, far from it, in the position of favorite for the first round of the legislative elections on Sunday.
On this “coastal” territory which runs along the east coast of the department and the resorts of Mauguio-Carnon and La Grande-Motte, extends to the east of Montpellier, from La Pompignane to Port-Marianne, and includes the plains with a strong identity of the Country of Gold and southern Lunelois, the electoral equation is complex to decipher. Unpredictable even.
A dominant RN in Europeans
If we go by the results of the European elections, clearly the game is over. With a national bloc of more than 40%, a union of the left of more than 30 and the presidential majority of less than 13%, mass would be said. Furthermore, over the past few elections, it is obvious that an inexorable political trend seems to be asserting itself here. It narrows the central space and that of the Republican right in favor of the extremes: RN on one side, LFI on the other.
The divided national camp
However, on the eve of the first round of these lightning legislative elections, the game still seems open. Including for the outgoing deputy Patrick Vignal who, in the circumstances, could not hope for a better configuration to try to thwart the predictions. The situation is indeed complex on the side of the favorite camp: that of the RN. A fierce battle is underway between Charles Alloncle, former national head of Young LR, official candidate from the surprise alliance of LR-Ciottistes and the RN and the local Frédéric Bort, RN candidate in 2022, sidelined by a hair in the evening of the first round two years ago, and who decided to dissent.
Will LFI fill up on the left?
Between the two, the knives came out: Charles Alloncle recalling “the Frêchist past and a Macronist time and above all opportunism” by Frédéric Bort and the latter kindly “kindly” describing the official RN-LR candidate as “parachuted who comes to do electoral tourism.” What effect will this division have at the polls? Mystery.
The mystery is also thick on the left. Like the Nupes in 2022, the New Popular Front reserved the 9th constituency for LFI. And it is once again Nadia Belaouni who has returned to the campaign. The candidate lost by just over 3,000 votes in the second round two years ago against Patrick Vignal. But it was then the time of a France Insoumise that was less divisive among social democratic voters in particular. However since 2022, the revelation of Europeans is that the moderate left has regained a place in the 9th constituency: the PS-Place Publique list of Raphaël Glucksmann even came in 2nd position and 3 points ahead of the LFI list of Manon Aubry.
A personal equation favorable to the outgoing?
What will be the behavior of these PS voters who, during the last legislative elections, were undoubtedly decisive in the elections of ex-PS Patrick Vignal? This is the other major unknown for Sunday. An unknown which is coupled with another: what will be the part of personal seduction of the outgoing on the voters of this territory of which he has been the national spokesperson since 2012?
