Weather in Paris: should we expect to see the first snowflakes fall in Île-de-France this week? The forecasts predict a drop in temperatures and unstable conditions from Thursday, November 21, 2024. But is snow really on the cards?
Will it snow in Paris and/or in Île-de-France this Thursday? The coming week promises a radical change in terms of weather conditions throughout France as in Paris region. After a relatively calm period in recent weeks, a cold front is setting in, driven by a conflict between a polar air mass and gentler flows from the south. If gray weather and precipitation are confirmed for the coming days, meteorologists remain cautious about the possibility of snow on the plains in the region.
From Monday, gray and humid weather will dominate with temperatures reaching 10°C. Tuesday, the thermometer will drop around 6°Caccompanied by intermittent rain and gusts reaching 75 km/h. A sunny lull is expected on Wednesday, but temperatures will continue to fall, approaching 0°C. It is from THURSDAY that conditions could lend themselves to the appearance of flakes.
Experts agree on the widespread cooling of the air from Wednesday, marked by a descent of polar air. However, several parameters make this situation complex. To fall and hold on to the ground, snow requires a precise alignment of factors: temperature, humidity and trajectory of depressions. Weather models, whether French (Arpège), American (GFS) or European (ECMWF), still show significant divergences on the location and intensity of the snow episode.
Potentially affected areas
According to current forecasts, flakes could appear in areas of Rambouillet (Yvelines), Crying (Seine-et-Marne)or even Milly-la-Forêt (Essonne). For inner Paris, the probability remains low, the city being slightly protected by its urban heat island effect. The soils, still relatively soft, should not allow the snow to hold for long periods of time.
Still uncertain weather
This uncertainty is explained by the complexity of atmospheric interactions. The trajectory of depressions and temperature variations, even minimal, can radically change forecasts. Guillaume Séchet, a well-known meteorologist, emphasizes the fluctuating nature of this situation. Daily model updates will be able to refine these predictions, but it may be necessary to wait a few hours before precipitation arrives to confirm the presence of snow.
What should we remember?
The day of Thursday November 21 seems the most conducive to possible snowfall in the plains, although the forecasts do not yet guarantee marked phenomena in Île-de-France. We advise you to regularly monitor the announcements of Météo-France and prepare yourself for a week where grayness, wind and rain will punctuate daily life, with perhaps a few winter surprises.
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