The federal Liberals will be able to see on Monday whether their drop in Canadian voting intentions will have an impact in the riding of Toronto-St. Paul’s.
The county where a by-election will take place on Monday is considered a liberal stronghold. The Reds have easily won in the last ten elections.
Many observers consider this election to be a referendum on the leadership of federal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. In the event of defeat, there is no doubt that he will face strong internal pressure to resign.
Even in 2011, when they were relegated to third party status, the Liberals won in Toronto—St. Paul’s.
The election was called following the departure of former minister Carolyn Bennett in January.
Leslie Church, a former chief of staff to Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, faces Conservative Don Stewart who comes from the business world.
Amrit Parhar is running for the NDP, but he’s not expected to be a big factor in this race.
The cost of housing is among the main electoral issues, as is the resurgence of anti-Semitism in the Queen City. Nearly 15% of voters in the district identify as Jewish.
The Liberal vote in Toronto—St. Paul’s has suffered a slow erosion over the years. In the last federal election, in 2021, Ms. Bennett obtained 49.22% of the votes cast, compared to 54.31% in 2019 and 55.26% in 2015.
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