On November 21, the Minister of Finance will finally provide his long-awaited economic update. An update which, it must be said, comes at the worst time. On the political level, the CAQ is going through a stormy period – the polls are not exactly flattering – and on the economic level, uncertainty looms with the election of Donald Trump, which casts a worrying shadow on growth projections.
But that’s not all. This is the first update since the historic deficit was revealed in the last budget. A deficit for which we hope that the government will have convincing explanations, if not a vaguely credible plan. Where are we really since this debacle? Are we moving – even a small step – towards a balanced budget, or is it simply a mirage?
Results
You should definitely not expect miracles. The famous freeze on recruitment in the civil service is still too fresh to produce the slightest effect. Ministries, ordered to respect their budget, are struggling to contain their spending. As for this promised billion-dollar health savings… the question remains: is this an achievable goal, or just another line in an optimistic speech?
And here’s where the problem lies: without any room for maneuver, financial or political, the government finds itself bogged down, right in the middle of a mandate, unable to readjust its priorities without risking fueling even more criticism. A short-term vision? Lack of inspiration? It seems more like the CAQ is on autopilot, hoping that no one will notice the lack of direction.
Vicious circle
The truth is that the government is caught in a trap of its own making. He launched ambitious reforms, opened with a lot of promises, but the results are still awaited. Meanwhile, the bill continues to rise, reducing its capacity for action a little more each day.
In short, this economic update is likely to confirm what everyone already suspects: a vicious circle in which the government is stuck, unable to find an escape route, and where each attempt at change seems more costly and less effective than the previous one.
