The 2024 hurricane season is expected to be very active in the Atlantic Ocean according to the most recent forecasts. Warm ocean temperatures and La Niña conditions could be responsible for a significant number of storms, but it is difficult to know how many will reach Canada.
A text from Marie-Emma Parenteau
According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA), between 17 and 25 named storms could form, i.e. significant storms in the Atlantic Ocean. Of these, 8 to 13 could become hurricanes and 4 to 7 of them could become major hurricanes.
Bob Robichaud, a meteorologist with Environment Canada, says that while it will be a very active hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean, it is still too early to determine how many storms will reach Canada. Photo: Radio-Canada
But not all of these storms will reach Canada. We have approximately 35% of the total storms developing in the Atlantic that will be in our intervention zone of the Canadian Hurricane Center.
explains Bob Robichaud, meteorologist for Environment Canada.
The question that cannot be answered is where these storms will go. […] We have to wait for them to really develop.
Bob Robichaud explains that already, the water temperatures are much warmer
than on this date last year.
The season will also have to deal with the La Niña phenomenon which is explained by a cooling of the waters in certain parts of the Pacific Ocean and which tends to create more hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean.
Between 17 to 25 named storms are forecast in 2024 in the Atlantic Ocean. Of these, 4 to 7 could develop into major hurricanes. Photo: Canadian Hurricane Center
These two factors, the factor that we have, La Niña which is developing and also that we really have record temperatures in the Atlantic, that leads us to believe that it is going to be an active season, even possibly hyper active .
The meteorologist also specifies that it will be necessary to monitor the rapid intensification of storms this year, due to these factors.
Preparation is key
Bob Robichaud explains that although it is a very active hurricane season, it is still too early to determine the path of the storms. You have to wait for these to form and their trajectory will be dictated by the weather conditions at that time.
For comparison, 20 named storms formed in the Atlantic Ocean last year.
Storm Lee caused property damage in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. Photo: CBC / Shaina Luck
Six storms crossed the response zone of the Canadian Hurricane Center, including Storm Lee which caused damage in southwestern Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. However, its intensity turned out to be less intense than that of post-tropical storm Fiona in 2022 where three deaths were reported linked to this storm.
Bob Robichaud explains that no matter how many storms are forecast, preparation is key, depending on where you live.
It’s not really that we’re preparing for a season of 17 to 25 storms, we’re preparing for one or two storms that could affect us during the season.
A second list of names is ready to use
Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, but storms are most common in August, September and October.
To name the storms of the 2024 season, a list of names has been established, the first storm will be named Alberto.
The list of storm names for the 2024 season. The first storm will be named Alberto, the 2nd will be named Beryl, and so on. Photo: Canadian Hurricane Center
The list includes 21 names. As of 2021, a list of additional names is available. It was created following the record-breaking 2020 season, when 30 named storms were recorded. If the number of storms this year exceeds 21, authorities will resort to it.
We’ve never had to use this list, but with the numbers we’re forecasting this year, it’s entirely possible that we’ll have to use this list.
specifies Bob Robichaud.
