After the visits of Kirk, Leslie and Ashley, will the elements finally calm down? If the current episode of rain in the west and north of France this Sunday and Monday does not allow us to respond ” right away “it is nevertheless possible to answer ” Soon “. Even if, as is often the case in meteorology, the sequence could suffer from a few hiccups.
High pressures on France and Europe
After the passage of this fairly marked disturbance, the north-western quarter of France will see “anticyclonic conditions are reestablishing”notes Yann Amice, meteorologist at Weather & Co. “The anticyclone will gradually settle in on Tuesday and will cover us until Thursday”he specifies.
In fact, any disturbances that could come from the Atlantic or the South will be driven towards other latitudes. As Météo France summarizes, the weather will be ” calm “even if fog, linked to humidity and the absence of wind, will be visible in the morning.
The presence of these high pressures over Europe and France is particularly visible in the image below, which shows the pressure levels expected in Europe at midday on Wednesday, according to the European forecast model.
A disruption from Thursday evening
However, this pattern will only last for a short time since, from Thursday evening, “a disturbance will arrive again from the west of France”, explains Yann Amice.
This disruption “classic in terms of haste” will approach the tip of Brittany at the end of the day and will sweep across the rest of France during the day on Friday. With significant potential consequences. “When it enters the rest of France on Friday afternoon, we should expect sustained precipitation in the Massif Central and the Rhône valley”warns Yann Amice.
For its part, Météo France indicates in its latest forecast bulletin of dangerous phenomena “that thanks to a rainy episode, we cannot exclude heavy accumulations of rain in Languedoc, the south of the Rhône-Alpes region and Paca for the days of Friday and Saturday”.
A potentially calm week of All Saints’ Day
If the weekend promises to be turbulent in certain parts of France, with consequences to be monitored in the regions affected by the recent Cévennes episode and ex-Hurricane Leslie, the weather should then calm down again.
During the week of October 28, “the weather should be generally quite calm and temperatures a little cooler than seasonal values”, summarizes Météo France in its medium-term forecasts.
The image below, constructed with data from the European model, indicates that a large part of France should be covered by high pressure again at the end of October and the beginning of November.
If, at this time, forecasts should obviously be taken with a pinch of salt, some models predict that this pattern, consistent with Météo France’s long-term trends, could return regularly over the following weeks.
