LThe budget battle is on. And for Michel Barnier, the landing offers no guarantee of success as the course of this finance bill promises to be eventful. Of course, the main points are known: faced with a debt wall now 3,228 billion euros high, the Prime Minister is banking on 41.3 billion euros in savings and 19.3 billion in new revenue.
However, if the NFP and the RN have already crushed this roadmap, even within the government, the pill is bitter. Thus, this Friday, in the wake of the very severe bad weather which swept the country, Agnès Pannier-Runacher, the minister in charge of the Ecological Transition, stepped up to the plate, regretting the lack of means to act: “We need a budget who is up to the situation and that is not the case today,” she admitted on BFMTV, before threatening to resign if the lines did not move. This criticism echoes that formulated by the Minister of Justice, Didier Migaud. On October 14, faced with the prospect of seeing his private mission of 500 million euros, he too was clear on RTL: “If we stick to the letter ceiling, I don’t see what I would still do in government. »
LR in ambush
If the Minister of Justice should win his case, these words reflect the harshness of this braking action. And announce a lively parliamentary debate. However, in a National Assembly without a majority, the outcome of the discussions is uncertain. “Who will want to vote for the 5 billion euros in savings for communities, asks this Macronist deputy? No one will want to alienate local elected officials. » Especially since the specter of a possible dissolution in a year still threatens… The passage of the text in the Finance Committee this week set the tone. After four days of discussions, it became unrecognizable, completely transformed by the adoption of some 200 amendments, implementing 50 billion euros in additional taxes. As a result, this Saturday, the central bloc, the right and the RN voted together against, leading to the rejection of the “revenue” part.
“The announcement of a new immigration law appears to be one more pledge addressed to Marine Le Pen”
Certainly, the debate will resume in the hemicycle on Monday, on the basis of the initial text. But the government coalition will have to close ranks. Not easy. Because the Republicans are defending a project with 50 billion euros in savings. They therefore want a drastic plan to fight “against bureaucracy”, in particular by eliminating state agencies, which would save “13 billion euros”. They also want to “restore the balance between social and welfare”. The result is “12 billion” savings. And finally, “7 billion” in savings on immigration. “It’s nonsense,” this Macronist MP gets annoyed. Let them give us the names of the agencies they want to eliminate…”
Immigration
This LR offensive should not be neglected. Because on second reading, the finance bill will go to the Senate where the right is in the majority. And determined to defend, too, a clear reduction in spending. The senators have not forgotten that last fall, during the examination of the 2024 finance bill – the one which ended up derailed -, Élisabeth Borne, then Prime Minister, had refused their 7 billion euros in savings. “Yes, we refused it,” confirms this Renaissance deputy, “but they wanted to increase the price of electricity by 20%…”
Now that the deficit has turned into an abyss, the Senate intends to move forward with its pawns
Whatever. Gérard Larcher, the President of the Senate, also does not miss an opportunity to recall that he has been warning since November 2022 about the slippage of public finances… Now that the deficit has turned into an abyss, the Senate intends to move forward well. his pawns. And rewrite from top to bottom the text that will arrive from the Assembly.
Under pressure
A boon for Michel Barnier, this Prime Minister from the Republicans? It’s hard not to ask the question. As it is highly unlikely to see this finance bill adopted without 49.3, it is almost guaranteed to have a version in hand that meets the savings requirements. “It’s a hypothesis,” recognizes this Macronist deputy. The Senate will put pressure on him to keep his text. » “It’s probably even the calculation,” continues this other deputy from the central bloc. Barnier is very comfortable with the senatorial right. The Senate is at the center of the game.”
All under the gaze of the RN, whose hoped-for benevolence towards this text remains the government’s best life insurance. This shows its fragility… In these conditions, the announcement of a new immigration law for the beginning of 2025 appears to be one more pledge addressed to Marine Le Pen. “Yes, it’s to ensure that the budget will pass,” jokes this Macronist parliamentarian. This is what we call a game of daggers drawn chess.
