Will Dominic LeBlanc become the next Prime Minister of Canada? It’s unlikely. However, we welcome the fact that he is in a position to replace Justin Trudeau at short notice, should he resign.
Two weeks ago, columnist Lawrence Martin published an article in the Globe and Mail with the revealing title: Dominic LeBlanc wants his close friend Justin Trudeau’s job.
The Globe is the most prestigious newspaper in the country. The column therefore caused a reaction in political circles, particularly in Ottawa.
Mr. LeBlanc took no time to counterattack. A few days later, an article entitled Dominic LeBlanc says he’s not after Trudeau’s job was published in the Postmedia newspaper chain.
Note that despite appearances, the two titles are not contradictory. Mr. LeBlanc could very well have the ambition to succeed Mr. Trudeau, but without actively preparing for this eventuality.
What can we learn from these recent releases and analyses? Dominic LeBlanc has been a key figure in politics in Acadia and New Brunswick for nearly a quarter of a century, which helps us better understand his strategies and motivations.
Let’s get straight to the point. Dominic LeBlanc is loyal to the Liberal Party and Justin Trudeau. There is no chance of him undermining the authority of his boss.
He is not preparing a putsch, he does not want to be caliph in place of the caliph. We are not at the beginning of a fratricidal war, like the one between Paul Martin and Jean Chrétien in the early 2000s.
However, one would have to be naive to believe that Mr. LeBlanc does not at least take an interested look towards the future. It would be irresponsible of him not to do so. The government is a minority and depends on the support of the New Democratic Party. It could fall at any time, although elections are unlikely by the end of the year.
For his part, Justin Trudeau has indicated his desire to lead his party during the next election campaign. However, many fear seeing him lead his troops to the slaughterhouse, as he is so unpopular with voters.
He has burned several cartridges in recent weeks, with the tabling of a budget including tens of billions of dollars in new spending, without this moving the needle in public opinion. Faced with the specter of a defeat that appears inevitable, will the Prime Minister give up?
If he were to resign, it is clear to us that Dominic LeBlanc would be the best person to succeed him.
The member for Beauséjour weighs heavily within the party. Officially, he is Minister of Public Safety, Democratic Institutions and Intergovernmental Affairs. In fact, he is a superminister to whom provincial governments turn when they try to influence the federal government. Few important decisions are made in Ottawa without him being directly or indirectly involved.
Acadians witnessed the importance of his influence during the 2021 federal elections. That summer, the leader of the Bloc Québécois, Yves-François Blanchet, organized with the Société de l’Acadie du N.-B. a visit aimed at showing solidarity with the Acadian people.
Mr. Blanchet ultimately never went to Caraquet. The SANB has canceled its presence at the event.
The Acadian Liberals, led by Mr. LeBlanc, forcefully denounced this attempted separatist incursion into the heart of the Liberal kingdom and ensured that it did not take place.
At the same time, Dominic LeBlanc is a popular and non-polarizing political figure. While the provincial premiers do not hesitate to denounce ministers Steven Guilbeault (Environment) and Chrystia Freeland (Finance), they never publicly criticize the Acadian MP. This includes Blaine Higgs, who has the intelligence to cultivate good relations with Mr. LeBlanc despite the contempt he feels for Mr. Trudeau.
Dominic LeBlanc is not only the favorite to succeed his leader. It is also the Liberal Party’s best chance to successfully face Hurricane Pierre Poilievre which will hit during the next election campaign.
