(Ecofin Agency) – While 600 million people live without electricity in Africa and climate objectives require an increase in clean energy, geothermal energy appears to be a key solution. According to a new IEA report, the potential of this source is still underexploited.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Africa could become by 2050 the region with the largest installed geothermal capacity. The organization says an improved macroeconomic environment and widespread policy support, reducing development risks, could enable the continent to unlock up to 25 GW of geothermal capacity, more than any other region in the world.
Titled “The Future of Geothermal Energy,” the report examines several growth scenarios for this sector. In the first scenario, global geothermal capacity could increase by almost 50% to reach 22 GW in 2030 and 60 GW in 2050.
Africa is expected to see the largest expansion of geothermal capacity in the world, “by developing its vast and still unexploited conventional geothermal resources in a relatively profitable manner to meet rapidly growing energy demand”. “Although solar PV and wind power plants can produce electricity at lower cost in many African countries, their rapid deployment to meet this demand can pose integration challenges due to weak grid infrastructure,” can we read in the document. In the second scenario examined by the organization, if projects are accelerated and new drilling authorized around the world, installed capacity could exceed 80 GW, again with Africa presented as one of the largest contributors.
These predictions are based on considerable geothermal potential, much of it concentrated in the Rift Valley, a volcanic zone running through countries including Kenya, Ethiopia and Tanzania. This region already plays a key role in African geothermal production, with Kenya in the lead. According to the same IEA report, Kenya figure among the three countries having contributed the most to the global expansion of geothermal capacity (15 GW in 2023) over the last decade, with Turkey and Indonesia. The country plans to nearly double its capacity by 2030. Kenya’s progress could inspire other African countries with similar resources, such as Ethiopia and Tanzania, where direct subsidies already support drilling activities.
The IEA report also highlights recent technological advances as an important lever for geothermal development. Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) and closed loop systems (AGS) now provide access to previously unexploitable resources, significantly increasing the potential of many African countries. Additionally, the authors point out that the oil and gas industry could play a major role in this expansion. With its expertise in deep drilling and large project management, this industry could facilitate the transition to sustainable energy solutions.
Despite these opportunities, the development of geothermal energy on the continent will not be without obstacles. The initial costs of projects remain high, and their profitability can take a long time to achieve. To overcome these challenges, the IEA recommends the establishment of clear public policies and risk reduction mechanisms, including grants, subsidized loans and tax incentives. Without this favorable framework, Africa’s geothermal potential will remain largely unexploited.
Additionally, global geothermal capacity additions have seen uneven growth in recent years. Between 2018 and 2022, the annual average of new installations was 0.4 GW, but this fell to 0.1 GW in 2023, according to the report. Renewables 2024 global status » published by the REN21 network. This illustrates the technical and financial challenges facing this industry. Nevertheless, the IEA estimates that the dynamic could accelerate beyond 2030, provided that risk mitigation mechanisms are put in place to attract investors. It says that with increased policy support and falling production costs thanks to technological innovations, investments in geothermal energy could reach $2.5 trillion by 2050.
This dynamic would offer a response to the growing demand for electricity while several concordant sources estimate that around 600 million people are still in need in Africa and the United Nations predict that the African population will double by 2050. It would also contribute to the decarbonization of the African energy mix by reducing dependence on fossil fuels. According to Climate AnalyticsSub-Saharan Africa’s 49 countries must add a total of 260 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity by 2030 to meet climate goals. However, the continent’s energy future cannot rely solely on geothermal energy. This will have to be part of a broader strategy, combining different sources of renewable energy and massive investments in infrastructure.
Louis-Nino Kansoun
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