Members of Generation X may be more likely to be diagnosed with cancer at age 60 than their parents’ generation, according to a new study. Scientists made the prediction after analyzing the medical records of 3.8 million people in the United States who were diagnosed with different types of invasive cancer between 1992 and 2018.
Trends in cancer incidence
Cancer incidence, that is, the number of new cases diagnosed per capita each year, presents complex dynamics. While the incidence of some cancers shows a downward trend, notably thanks to prevention efforts and improved screenings, others are experiencing an increase. A crucial question then remains: do current generations, like Generation X, face a higher incidence of cancer as they age compared to their parents?
Understanding these dynamics is essential for preventing disease and improving access to healthcare, while highlighting persistent socioeconomic inequalities across generations. As part of recent work, researchers have focused on the case of the United States.
Methodology and results
For this study, researchers analyzed the medical records of 3.8 million people diagnosed with various types of invasive cancers between 1992 and 2018. Invasive cancer is defined as cancer that has spread from its original site to surrounding tissues. Using this data, researchers plotted age-of-onset curves to visualize how many people are diagnosed at a particular age.
The objective of the projections was to estimate how many people born between 1908 and 1983 are likely to be diagnosed with cancer by age 60. These statistical models reveal potential trends, although they cannot explain underlying causes, such as environmental factors or improvements in screening and diagnosis.
The results show that members of Generation cervical cancer in women, and lung, liver and gallbladder cancer in men, are projected to decline. However, rates of many other types of cancer, such as thyroid, kidney and colon, are increasing for Generation X.
How to explain it?
Several factors can explain these worrying trends. We know in particular that obesity is a well-known risk factor for many types of cancer, while sedentary lifestyles also contribute to increased risk. Additionally, more recent environmental exposures, such as ultra-processed foods introduced in the 1980s, may also play a role in increasing cancer rates. These products are in fact suspected of contributing to various health problems, including cancer.
Also note that technological advances in diagnosis and screening, such as the use of disease-specific biomarkers and artificial intelligence to analyze blood samples, are allowing cancers to be detected earlier. Although this may lead to an apparent increase in cancer incidence, it also represents an improvement in early detection and potentially in patient survival.
This study highlights the critical importance of monitoring and understanding trends in the incidence of this disease across generations. Although some types of cancer show decreasing rates, the general increase in incidence among Generation X requires special attention. This surveillance would enable the development of more effective prevention strategies and improve access to health care.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not intended to offer medical advice.
