the essential
Five days before the deadline, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are neck and neck in the polls. The two candidates have each appealed in recent days to big names in music, television or social networks to try to tip the scales in their favor. But behind the rhinestones and sequins, can this strategy really be effective? Decryption.
In recent weeks, the American campaign has taken on the appearance of a red carpet. Of Beyoncé and her song Freedoman anthem of the Democratic campaign, with ex-wrestler Hulk Hogan tearing up his t-shirt for his “hero” Donald Trump, a constant parade of celebrities took over the election.
The use of stars in politics is nothing new in the land of the Star-Spangled Banner, where an actor has already been elected president and a billionaire reality TV star is trying to run for a second term. But does the support of these big names in “pop culture” really have the power to swing the vote?
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The immediate “Swift” effect
If there is one name that has monopolized attention in recent months, it is that of Taylor Swift. After a long suspense, the star broke the silence at the end of the debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, announcing that she would vote for the Democrat. The effect was immediate: in just 15 minutes, her publication had already garnered more than a million likes, suggesting that a massive influx of support for the Democrat would follow.
Because in September 2023, on the occasion of National Registration Day, Taylor Swift invited her more than 280 million subscribers on Instagram to register to vote. The Vote.org platform then recorded 400,000 visits and more than 35,000 new registrations, a jump of 23% compared to the previous year. A rate which even explodes to 115% if we limit ourselves to first-time voters aged 18, even though the participation of young people has been at half mast since Barack Obama's campaign in 2008, underlines the magazine Vogue. However, according to the director of Vote.org, 80% of registrations on the platform result in a vote.
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A very limited impact
But even the influence of a global megastar like Taylor Swift has its limits. In 2018, during the midterm elections, conservative candidate Marsha Blackburn was elected senator against Democrat Phil Bredesen, although supported by the famous pop star. Two years earlier, the support of Beyoncé, Pharrell Williams, Jay Z, Katy Perry and Lady Gaga was not enough for Hillary Clinton to beat Donald Trump, despite her lead in the popular vote.
According to a Quinnipiac University survey relayed by Huffpost, 76% of potential voters said that Taylor Swift's announcement had not increased their interest in Kamala Harris. 13% said they were even less enthusiastic about the idea. that the Democratic candidate becomes president. The same goes for Trump: for 64% of those questioned, Elon Musk's support did not arouse enthusiasm for the Republican's candidacy (Ipsos survey for ABC News).
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A decisive influence on participation?
The influence of stars in politics seems more quantitative than qualitative. In other words, a big name with a big platform can influence the participation of its fans but more difficult their choice. Taylor Swift, for example, “can remind unmotivated voters — particularly her fans nicknamed 'Swifties,' who are typically young white women — to register and vote, and most of those voters will likely support Kamala.” , analyzes Stephanie Burt, an English professor at Harvard University who teaches a course called “Taylor Swift and Her World.”
Celebrity endorsements don't have a huge effect on the outcome of an election, says David Schultz, a political science professor at Hamline University, but there are exceptions. “In 2008, the charisma of Oprah Winfrey […] helped Barack Obama win the Democratic primary against Hillary Clinton”, he says in the columns of CBS News. This year, the “generational” impact of Taylor Swift could “make the difference” in certain swing states. In an election where victory could be decided by a few votes, “every little gesture counts”, believes Stephanie Burt. A handful of “Swifties” convinced to vote for their favorite starlet could thus “decide the election”.
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Crucial for mobilizing young people?
Celebrities can help galvanize motivation and mobilization in a country lagging behind in terms of electoral participation (ranking 31st out of 50 developed nations), points out ABC News. “Right now, young voters have relatively little trust in many leaders and institutions, including traditional media, but celebrities are often a rare exception,” theorizes engagement expert Ashley Spillane civic and political and author of a study on the subject.
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But what is “Brat summer”, which even affects Kamala Harris?
For a generation that obtains information almost exclusively on social networks, a star's post can be a game-changer. A trend already observed with the “brat” phenomenon popularized by the album of the same name by singer Charli XCX, who with a simple post on the social network X, undeniably contributed to the success of Kamala Harris' campaign among the youngest . Celebrities can make voting cool. “Cool” enough to spark a historic wave of mobilization? Response in five days.
