Despite a slowing economy, the country increased its exports by 7.1%, official media announced on Monday January 13.
Chinese exports reached a record level in 2024 according to official data published Monday, at a time when Donald Trump's return to power raises fears of a resumption of trade tensions between Beijing and Washington. Exports were last year one of the rare green indicators for the world's second largest economy, seized up since the end of the pandemic by sluggish consumption and a persistent crisis in the real estate sector.
“In 2024, the amount of Chinese exports exceeded 25,000 billion yuan for the first time to reach 25,450 billion yuan (around 3,400 billion euros), an increase of 7.1% compared to the previous year”Lu Daliang, a Chinese customs spokesperson, said at a press conference on Monday. In December, they jumped 10.7% from the previous year, according to Chinese customs data, comfortably exceeding the forecast of 7.5% by economists surveyed by the Bloomberg agency.
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The vitality of exports at the end of the year is partly linked to the build-up of stocks by foreign companies anticipating an increase in customs duties under the mandate of Donald Trump, some economists believe. Imports also climbed to 18.39 trillion yuan (around 2.39 trillion euros) in 2024, a more modest increase of 2.3% compared to the previous year, according to Chinese customs. In total, trade increased by 5% in 2024 compared to last year, reaching a record level of 43.85 trillion yuan (around 5.841 billion euros), the vice minister of Administration added on Monday. General of Customs, Wang Lingjun. “China’s position as the leading country in the world in terms of trade in goods is even more secure”Wang Lingjun affirmed.
Upcoming turbulence
Exports have historically been a key driver of the world's second-largest economy. But US President-elect Donald Trump, by promising to drastically increase customs duties on Chinese imports after his inauguration on January 20, could deal a severe blow to this pillar of Chinese growth. Chinese expeditions “should remain resilient in the short term”puts into perspective in a note Zichun Huang, economist at Capital Economics. “But overseas exports are expected to weaken later this year if Donald Trump makes good on his threat of 60% tariffs on all Chinese goods”she adds.
To strengthen its economy in the face of this turmoil, Beijing has since September announced a series of measures to stimulate the economy, including a reduction in interest rates and an increase in the debt ceiling for local governments. “Thanks to strong exports and easing macroeconomic policies, economic momentum has likely stabilized”analyzes Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, in a note. But some economic circles believe that more direct fiscal stimulus measures aimed at supporting consumption are ultimately necessary to maintain growth in the Chinese economy.
