In France, the fall in births continued in 2024

The “demographic rearmament” ? A year after this slogan with belligerent accents launched by Emmanuel Macron, it is a rout. In France, in 2024, there were even fewer births than in 2023. Started several years ago, the trend has become more pronounced: 663,000 babies were born last year, reveals the latest report from the Insee, i.e. 2.2% less than in 2023 and 21.5% less than in 2010, the year of the last peak in births. The total fertility indicator (TFR) falls to 1.62 children per woman, after 1.66 in 2023. An indicator which has never been so low since the end of the First World War.

As of January 1, 2025, France has 68.6 million inhabitants, shows the latest demographic report. The population increases by 169,000 inhabitants, 0.25% more than a year earlier, growth very slightly lower than in 2023 and 2022. In detail, 66.4 million in mainland France and 2.3 million in the five departments of 'overseas. As for the average cyclical age at childbirth, it continues its upward trend and stands at 31.1 years, compared to 29.5 years twenty years earlier.

Arrival of baby boom generations at ages of high mortality

In 2024, the number of deaths is 5% higher than its pre-pandemic level of 2019. It has further increased slightly (+1.1% compared to 2023). An increase which is not linked to illness, but quite simply to the arrival of large baby boom generations at ages of high mortality. “The episodes of high summer heat, fewer in number than in 2023, did not lead to a significant increase in mortalityunderlines the INSEE report. The increase in 2024 can thus be explained by the aging of the population.. The natural balance stands at +17,000 in 2024, the lowest level since the end of the Second World War. As for net migration, it is “provisionally estimated at +152,000 people for 2024”.

There is still good news: life expectancy is stabilizing at a historically high level: 85.6 years for women – one of the highest in the EU -, 80 years for men. Since the mid-1990s, life expectancy at birth has increased less quickly for women than for men, thus reducing the gap between the two sexes: it is 5.6 years in 2024, compared to 7.1 years in 2004.

Another positive aspect, in 2024, the number of marriages, estimated at 247,000 – including 7,000 between people of the same sex – increases slightly (+2%) compared to 2023. The trend was rather downward before the health crisis. The number of PACS concluded decreases in 2023 (latest figures available), but remains at the high level of 204,000.

In 2022, the latest year available for European comparisons, the TFR stood at 1.46 children per woman across the European Union. “Those who seek to put things into perspective or to console themselves by comparing themselves to neighboring countries are wrongwarns the National Union of Family Associations (UNAF). Over the last two years, the decline in France is more pronounced than in the majority of European countries..

“Lack of childcare solutions”

“In addition to the economic situation, real estate issues, fear of the future, we perceive difficulties that are a little more intimate, indicates Cécilia Creuzet, co-founder of May, an app which allows parents and future parents to interact with perinatal specialists. The first is the difficulty that families, and especially women, have in reconciling professional and personal life. Since 1975, the activity rate of women has increased considerably, but at the same time, they continue to take care of everything else at home… In our chat, women tell us to what extent this impacts their desire to have a child!”

Then comes the problem of “lack of nursery places and childcare solutions”. “According to a survey we carried out among our users, 34% say they would have more children if daily organization was simplerexplains Cecilia Creuzet. And more than half admit that the climate crisis is slowing down their desire to have (another) child”. And then “the introduction of performance in this area, and the pressure that there is on parents today has increased in recent decades, she continues. We have more and more knowledge about what is good for a child, but when you add it all up, it becomes really complicated to be a good parent! Finally, the growing individualism that we see in our society is contradictory with the idea of ​​starting a family…”.

“It is therefore not for lack of desire to have children that births are decreasing!”

“Babies don’t fall from the sky!” exclaims the UNAF, inviting “the public authorities to address this issue from the angle of the cost of the child and the conciliation difficulties encountered by young parents”. “People in a relationship and of childbearing age (18-44 years) declared in 2023 that they ideally wanted 2.27 children*, she argues. It is therefore not a lack of desire to have children that births are falling! Of course, better employment conditions, better access to housing and controlled inflation are determining conditions. But as proven by the lasting rise in fertility following the favorable measures decided in the 1990s, relaunching a full-fledged family policy is essential.».

Will 2025 be more favorable? The next census starts in any case on January 16. Nine million French people will be subject to it. Three new questions will be asked, one of which, optional, is already the subject of debate: it concerns the place of birth of the parents. An addition criticized by several organizations, including the Human Rights League and the CGT: “This question presents many dangersthey say in a petition. No public policy justifies the immigrant origin of our parents being collected in our individual report card. The recording of this information is a step towards possible unequal treatment by the State on this basis..

*Vérian-Unaf 2023 survey