Brent oil exceeds $80 in anticipation of US sanctions against Russia

Are there a new surge in oil prices? Oil prices rose sharply on Friday, driven by possible sanctions that the United States is preparing to take against the “ghost fleet” Russian, which could have an impact on the Kremlin’s oil exports. Around 2:20 p.m. GMT (3:20 p.m. in Paris), the price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea, for delivery in March, rose 4.50% to $80.38. Its American equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate, for delivery in February, increased by 4.80% to $77.47. “The United States is expected to announce new sanctions against Russia soon”say DNB analysts, “including on many tankers, which will further disrupt Russian crude exports”.

Russia is the world’s second largest producer of crude oil and its “ghost fleet”made up of around 600 ships, transports nearly 1.7 million barrels of oil per day, London estimated last July. Similar sanctions were taken in December against Iran by the United States and against Russia by the European Union. “There are signs that Western sanctions against Russia’s ghost fleet are effective”says Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank, who highlights a level of Russian crude oil exports at the lowest since August 2023. “As a result, India has to look for alternative suppliers, mainly in the Middle East, which creates additional demand” and drives up prices, explains Carsten Fritsch. The drop in exports of Iranian and Russian crude oil linked to sanctions will also force “China to look for other alternatives”indicates Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM.

New US sanctions could therefore significantly reduce the availability of Russian oil in the short term. The market is also supported by very cold weather in the United States, “which is expected to lead to an increase in demand for heating fuels”reports John Plassard, analyst at Mirabaud. The market also witnessed this week the “seventh consecutive weekly decline in U.S. crude oil inventories”adds the analyst, which tends to drive up prices on the market. In recent weeks the prices of black gold have risen sharply, and according to Bjarne Schieldrop of SEB, “the current strength in oil may not be just a flash in the pan and could last”.