Chase away the natural… – Zonebourse

Friday morning, I was ironic here about the supposed outperformance of European stocks compared to American ones at the start of 2025. The old continent had progressed slightly during the first session, while Wall Street fell back. A dazzling domination… which lasted 24 hours. On Friday, the American market rebounded vigorously while the other side of the Atlantic fell again. Especially in Paris, where luxury values ​​have been cut short after a Reuters report on empty stores and sluggish sales in Hainan, the Chinese island of Duty Free. Enough to continue to fuel the depression of a sector that investors have discovered even more Sino-dependent than they feared. The good news? We already know what actions to take when Beijing reopens the floodgates. The bad one? Nobody knows when this will happen. In any case, the Parisian market lost 1.5% on Friday, significantly more than the European average, in a configuration which painfully resembles that of 2024. A few pockets of resistance all the same: Zurich, driven by UBS after a rave report from Bank of America, and Oslo, boosted by the rise in oil prices which benefited the Norwegian oil-dependent market.

On the other side of the Atlantic, New York shone on Friday. Question: What does an American investor do who doesn’t have too many ideas to start the year? He buys technology stocks. He buys Nvidia, because he has not yet found a better way to capture the potential of artificial intelligence: 4.5% increase on Friday. He also buys Microsoft, Amazon and company. And then he buys Tesla (+8.2%), because his boss is the co-leader of the world. Note that Apple is the only stock among the ten largest American capitalizations to have fallen (a little) on Friday, after rumors of a fall in iPhone sales in China. All these people, excluding Apple, pulled the Nasdaq up 1.7% and the S&P500 up 1.3%, after five sessions of decline, it should be remembered.

It is of course too early to draw any major lessons from this, except that the TINA syndrome (There is No Alternativethere is no alternative) on technology in general and the magnificent seven” in particular has not disappeared with the new year… Chase away the natural, it comes back at a gallop.

Information not to be missed to start the week:

• US yields rose a little after cautious statements from three Fed officials, who explained that inflation remains too high and that rates risk remaining restrictive for longer than expected. A message consistent with that sent in December by the boss of the central bank, Jerome Powell.
• A representative basket of Asian currencies hit a near 20-year low against the dollar. A movement consistent with the above: if American rates remain high, the dollar has no reason to fall.
• China’s Caixin Services PMI was stronger than expected in December and strengthens its expansion. This is a positive point while the manufacturing industry remains in difficulty. At the same time, the Chinese central bank continues its incantations by evoking measures to support technological innovation and consumers.
• The major hacking of American telecommunications companies blamed on China may have affected significantly more companies than previously announced, according to the WSJ.
• Justin Trudeau, the Canadian Prime Minister, is expected to announce his resignation today, according to the Globe and Mail.
• In France, angry farmers threaten to blockade Paris.
• In Austria, the failure to form a centrist government forced Chancellor Karl Nehammer to resign. A new coalition led by the far-right FPO party is under discussion.
• Macro agenda: the highlights of the week are the first estimates of December inflation in Germany (Monday) and the euro zone (Tuesday), then the minutes of the last meeting of the American central bank (Wednesday) and the figures employment in the United States in December (Friday).
• Companies’ agenda: some figures are already expected, notably those from the French collective catering group Sodexo (for the first quarter of its staggered 2024/2025 financial year), the Swiss specialist in building chemicals Sika and the British distributor Tesco.

For its first session of the year, the Japanese Nikkei 225 lost 1%, despite the support of its technology compartment. In China, the services PMI is not enough to cheer investors, who are pushing the MSCI China down further by 0.6% during the session. Conversely, South Korea and Taiwan soared by more than 2%, boosted by the rebound in American technology, by solid figures from Foxconn and by the prospects for investment in chips thanks to AI. Australia gained 0.1% at the close, while India suffered, down 0.8%. Europe should start up, to compensate for Friday’s performance gap with Wall Street.

Today’s economic highlights

Attention will focus on the latest services PMI indicators, the first estimate of German inflation for December (2:00 p.m.) and orders for durable goods in the United States (4:00 p.m.). The whole agenda here.

The main changes in recommendations

• Antin Infrastructure Partners: Citi goes from neutral to buy with a price target raised from 14.30 EUR to 14.90 EUR.
• Burberry: Citigroup maintains its neutral recommendation with a price target raised from 695 to 980 GBX.
• Carrefour: Citigroup maintains its purchase recommendation with a price target raised from 20.80 to 23.10 EUR.
• Compagnie Financière Richemont: Stifel maintains its buy recommendation with a price target raised from 144 to 152 CHF.
• CVC Capital Partners: Citi goes from neutral to buy with a price target raised from 22.60 EUR to 25.30 EUR.
• DocMorris: HSBC maintains its recommendation to hold with a price target reduced from 40 to 20 CHF.
• Energean Plc: Jefferies goes from maintain to underperform with a price target reduced from 1000 GBX to 800 GBX.
• Equinor: Sparebank 1 Markets downgrades its buy recommendation to neutral with a price target of NOK 290. Zacks maintains its neutral recommendation with a price target raised from $24 to $26.
• Hermès International: Stifel goes from hold to buy with a price target raised from 2150 to 2560 EUR.
• HSBC Holdings: Morgan Stanley maintains its market weighting recommendation with a price target raised from 761 to 871 GBX.
• ING Groep: AlphaValue/Baader Europe downgrades its buy advice to accumulate with a target price reduced from 19.10 to 19 EUR.
• Medacta: Morgan Stanley overweight from market weighting to overweight with a price target raised from 134 CHF to 135 CHF.
• Moncler: Stifel maintains its recommendation to hold with a price target reduced from 60 to 54 EUR.
• Nexi: Barclays maintains its recommendation to underweight with a price target reduced from 5.50 to 5.10 EUR.
• Novo Nordisk: Jefferies remains underperforming with a price target reduced from 575 to 515 DKK.
• Rolls-Royce: Citigroup goes from buy to neutral by targeting 641 GBX.
• Sartorius: AlphaValue/Baader Europe goes from accumulating to buying with a price target raised from 289 to 293 EUR.
• Siemens AG: Berenberg remains a buy with a price target raised from 215 to 245 EUR.
• Spectris: HSBC goes from hold to buy with a price target raised from 2800 to 2900 GBX.
• Stellantis: Bernstein maintains its market performance recommendation with a price target raised from 11 to 12 EUR.
• Swatch Group: Stifel maintains its recommendation to hold with a price target reduced from 195 to 165 CHF.
• Tikehau Capital: Citigroup maintains its buy recommendation with a reduced price target of 26.70 to 25.50 EUR.
• UBS Group: Zacks maintains its neutral recommendation with a reduced price target of $34 to $32.
• Unilever: RBC goes from sectoral performance to underperformance by targeting 4000 GBX.
• Wise Plc: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the price target from 900 to 1130 GBX.
• Worldline: Barclays maintains its market weighting recommendation with a price target raised from 7 to 7.50 EUR.
• Zalando: Citigroup maintains its purchase recommendation with a price target raised from 38 to 41 EUR.

In France

Important announcements (and less important… I should point out that the information is given immediately before the opening and does not prejudge the color of the shares during the session)

• Ultimately, Airbus would have delivered a little more than 765 planes in 2024, according to new sources, very close to the objectives.
• Sales of Stellantis vehicles in the United States fell 7% in the fourth quarter and 15% for the full year.
• Unibail sells 15% of the Westfield Forum des Halles in Paris for €235 million.
• The Argan property company has achieved its rental income growth objective in 2024.
• Fleury Michon finalizes the sale of the meal tray activity in Ile de France to Kumo.
• The main publications of the day : nothing… The rest here.

In the big world

Important (and not so important) announcements

D’Europe

• UBS has appointed an independent ombudsman to investigate Nazi-linked accounts at Credit Suisse.
• Galp Energia is investigating an anonymous complaint regarding an alleged personal relationship between general manager Filipe Silva and a company executive, the economic site ECO reported on Saturday.
• Eni restarts drilling for a gas project off the coast of Egypt.
• Rheinmetall creates a joint venture in Lithuania for a project to build a munitions factory.
• Volkswagen and Xpeng are strengthening their collaboration by working together to develop ultra-fast charging networks for electric vehicles in China.
• Moody’s upgraded Unipol’s credit rating from Ba1 to Baa3.
• The main publications of the day : nothing…

From North America

From Asia Pacific and beyond

• Nippon Steel plans to sue the White House’s veto of the takeover of United States Steel.
• Insignia Financial receives $1.8 billion buyout offer from CC Capital Partners.
• Foxconn, Apple’s largest iPhone assembler, reported that its Q4 revenue rose 15.2% to a record.
• The main publications of the day : nothing…

The rest of the global publications calendar here.

Lectures