LHistory does not repeat itself but it stutters. The last time that four prime ministers succeeded each other at the head of the country in the space of a year was in 1934, testimony to a multifaceted crisis of a divided country which refused to give itself a future. In a striking parallel, to go back to such a low number of births as in 2023 or 2024, we must also return to the atmosphere of the end of the 1930s.
A country that does not have children is a country that does not believe in the future. Beyond the natural concerns regarding climate change, geopolitical crises and the return of war to Europe, and the difficulties in making ends meet, we must also see a consequence of the blocking of the housing market. Housing difficulties for young people in large cities are not conducive to embarking on a family expansion project and play a role in the drop in births.
Under these conditions, one of the government's priorities should be a housing policy focused on youth. The very rapid rise in interest rates and the tightening of conditions for access to credit led to a halving of real estate transactions, which had repercussions on all segments of the housing market. That of new construction has collapsed, leading to a decline in the number of households leaving the rental stock.
Young people, the first victims of residential blockage
However, this plays a role as a gateway for young people, especially since successive governments have taken time to understand the harmful role played by a more advantageous tax policy for Airbnb type rentals. In addition, the social park is closed to them because they do not have children. Those under 35 make up only 15% of tenants in the social housing stock, compared to 35% for the private rental stock.
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Thus, young people are the first victims of the blockage of residential pathways. Having fewer resources at their disposal because at the start of their career, they are over-represented in large urban areas, the most expensive of all, they are also looking for small spaces, the price of which per square meter is the most expensive. France is the second country in Europe for the share of public spending devoted to housing, after Finland. And the result is there, in quality and quantity.
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