DCustoms duties of 60% on Chinese imports. 25% for Mexico and Canada. 10% or 20% on those of other countries. 100% for those who claim to do without the dollar… Donald Trump is going crazy. To believe that he does not only see in the tariffs (customs duties) on “most beautiful word in the dictionary”but also an answer to all ills. We must be careful about certainties, in the case of a character who prides himself on his unpredictability, but these announcements promise many tensions and commercial disorders, in an international context that is already quite troubled.
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The new president is unlikely to implement his threats in full immediately. The United States may have one of the lowest rates of openness to trade in the world, but its merchandise imports represent more than 11% of its GDP. Taxing them significantly would run the risk of awakening inflation which is barely calming down. Donald Trump is undoubtedly sensitive to the political cost of such an eventuality, he who owes his election largely to inflation. The fear of stock market repercussions could also make him hesitate.
His immoderate taste for customs duties, like the experience of his first term, nevertheless suggest that Trump will use this instrument. It remains to be seen from what perspective. While some see it as a tool to reduce bilateral trade deficits, or even cut ties of dependence (“decouple”), others consider them above all as a negotiating lever – and Trump will be keen to expose his “art du deal”to use the title of his famous book.
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The first approach would call for higher rights, the second a more limited implementation, at least initially, or even conditional. It is difficult to anticipate which one will be favored and with which partner, especially since the two approaches can be combined. In any case, these taxes will in return provoke at least partial reprisals. The outcome is uncertain. It must be analyzed on two levels, economic and structural.
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