Japan wants renewable energies to represent its primary source of electricity by 2040 in order to achieve carbon neutrality by the middle of the 21st century, according to a project unveiled Tuesday by the Japanese government.
Thirteen years after the Fukushima disaster, nuclear energy is also expected to play a major role in meeting the growing demand for energy linked to artificial intelligence (AI) and the production of semiconductors. The world’s fourth largest economy, accused of having the most polluting energy mix of the G7 powers, has already set itself the objective of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050.
This draft version of the country’s new strategic energy plan predicts that renewable energy such as solar and wind will need to provide 40 to 50% of production by 2040. This would represent a sharp increase from the 23% level of last year and to the previously published target of 38% for 2030.
Gradually reduce the contribution of thermal power plants
Japan, poor in natural resources, will “strive to maximize the use of renewable energy as the main source” of electricity, says the draft plan, which will be reviewed by experts before being submitted for approval by the government.
The country is also aiming for an energy mix that does not rely heavily on a single source, “with a view to ensuring both a stable energy supply and decarbonization,” according to the plan.
In 2023, nearly 70% of the country’s electricity needs were covered by thermal power plants. By 2040, the government now wants this proportion to fall to 30 or 40%. The previously announced target for 2030 was 41%, or 42% if we include hydrogen and ammonia. The NGO Greenpeace welcomed “a step in the right direction”, while regretting that Japan was doing “too little and too late”. As a member of the G7, the country has committed to decarbonizing the majority of its electricity sector by 2035 and “obviously, its project is not up to par”, underlined Hirotaka Koike, an official of the organization for Japan.
Nuclear dilemma
Tokyo expects a 10 to 20% increase in the country’s electricity production by 2040, compared to 2023. “Ensuring the establishment of carbon-free electricity sources is directly linked to economic growth of our country,” Yoshifumi Murase, director of the National Energy Agency, told the government panel on Tuesday.
The draft published by Japan’s Natural Resources and Energy Agency no longer includes the country’s intention to reduce “as much as possible” its dependence on nuclear energy, a goal set after the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011.
The government closed all the nuclear power plants in the archipelago after this triple disaster (earthquake, tsunami, nuclear accident). But he gradually put them back into service, despite outcry in certain regions, as part of his policy to reduce emissions. It plans to have all of its existing reactors in operation by 2040, and possibly new reactors.
The atom represents about 20% of Japan’s energy needs according to the targets set for 2040, about the same level as the current target for 2030. But less than the levels before 2011, which were around 30 %. This would be more than double the 8.5% of total electricity production that nuclear provided in 2023.
The country, like many others around the world, has experienced record summer temperatures this year. Geopolitical concerns affecting energy supply, from the war in Ukraine to the situation in the Middle East, are another reason for the shift to renewables and nuclear power, according to the project.
Sami Nemli With Agency / ECO Inspirations
