According to the Emarketer Institute, Black Friday and the first days of the “Cyber Five” period accounted for a disproportionate share of holiday season sales in the United States, despite retailers’ efforts to anticipate spending from early October and to expand promotions over the five days between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday into an expanded period called the “Cyber Dozen.”
U.S. retail sales (excluding automobiles) increased 3.4% year-over-year on Black Friday. Online sales jumped 14.6% year-over-year, while in-store sales grew just 0.7% year-over-year, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse.
These results for online sales are broadly in line with the 10.2% increase reported by Adobe Analytics and the 7% increase reported by Salesforce for Black Friday. These three e-commerce growth figures exceed our forecast of 5.5% annual increase.
The average discount rate was 28%, according to Salesforce, which encouraged deal-seeking consumers to make the purchase. There were significant discounts in several key categories, including toys (down 27.8% from list price), electronics (down 27.4%), televisions (down 24.0%, 2%) and clothing (down 22.2%), according to Adobe Analytics. These lower-than-expected prices encouraged many consumers to open their wallets. About 72% of holiday season shoppers, or 131.7 million consumers, planned to shop on Black Friday, according to the National Retail Federation.
The main trends:
Mobiles accounted for 80% of traffic to retailers’ sites and apps during Black Friday, and 73% of orders, up from 71% last year, according to Salesforce. Between November 1 and 29, m-commerce generated 52.3% of online revenue, up from 51.1% the previous year, according to Adobe. We expect mobile sales to account for 52.7% of e-commerce in the final two months of the year.
The solutions “ Buy now, pay later » generated $686.3 million in online spending, up 8.8% year-over-year, according to Adobe.
Using featuresGenerative AI grew 6% week over week during Black Friday as consumers turned to the technology to find products that fit their needs, according to Adobe. The results are clear: retailers integrating generative AI into their site or app saw a 9% higher conversion rate than others.
Online commerce is more essential than ever
Holiday season forecasts anticipate online sales growth of 9.0% over the final two months of the year, bringing e-commerce’s share of total holiday sales to a record 19. 7% (+80 basis points compared to last year). This share is also 130 basis points higher than in 2020, when the pandemic pushed many consumers to favor online purchases.
One notable trend is increased spending on big-ticket items, likely driven by some consumers choosing to treat themselves before tariffs imposed by President-elect Donald Trump raised prices.
