This is the observation of a sector in the midst of a crisis: the transparency advocated by all stakeholders is having difficulty seeing the light of day. The figures relating to cocoa production and stocks leave experts doubtful and complicate forecasts for the next campaign.
Expert meetings have continued in recent days: meeting on stocks and meeting of the Advisory Commission on the world cocoa economy.
At the heart of these discussions, a major issue: “ transparency, because no one wants to give their figures “, summarizes a participant, who points the finger at the producing States, the bean grinders or even those called storers, who hold stocks for traders, manufacturers or unexpired contracts.
This observation is not new and was mentioned again recently, during the world cocoa conference organized in Brussels at the end of April, as evidenced by the final declaration.
A perfect illustration of the reluctance being expressed, a member of the ICCO (International Cocoa Organization) stocks commission reported at the beginning of the week the difficulty storage organizations have in communicating their data twice a year. They consider the process too time-consuming, at a time when the ICCO is specifically studying the opportunity to make communications more frequent, namely quarterly, for better monitoring of the market.
Stocks deemed unrealistic
The fact is that the stock level made public by the ICCO last week – fruit of the figures communicated by all parties – is considered unrealistic. In warehouses in Europe, USA, Ghana and of Ivory Coastvolumes would not have even fallen by 3% between the end of September 2023 and March 31, 2024. “ We are made to believe that stocks do not move, comments a doubtful expert, while 600 are missing 000 tonnes of cocoa ! “. But, our interlocutor assures us, recognizing that these stocks have fallen would cause prices to soar a little more, which is obviously not in the interest of buyers.
If manufacturers or their intermediaries are reluctant to cooperate, producing States are not rushing to implement transparency either. And when they provide figures, they are not necessarily reliable, explains an analyst: counting pods, on foot, in the plantations, to estimate future production is no longer considered efficient enough. Voices are being raised for a modernization of data collection.
Lack of visibility for the next harvest
This lack of reliable statistics and disagreements between experts complicate forecasts for the next harvest. Price projections have become very random. However, they already reflect market concern about the quantities of cocoa that will be put on the market next year: contracts signed for delivery of cocoa in 2025 flirt with $6,000 per tonne.
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