The government is now forecasting a deficit of 700 million francs for next year. From 2027, deficits are likely to reach several billions.
The Confederation’s budgetary situation improves slightly for 2025, compared to previous forecasts. A deficit of 700 million francs is however expected, announces the Federal Council. The situation is expected to deteriorate from 2027.
The Federal Council adopted the figures for the 2025 budget and the 2026-2028 financial plan on Wednesday. “We do not have a problem of revenue, but of expenditure,” recalled Finance Minister Karin Keller-Sutter at a press conference.
Between the beginning of the year and May, the Confederation recorded an increase in revenue from income tax and profit tax. Estimated at 85.7 billion, the Confederation’s total revenue included in the 2025 budget thus increases by 3.2% compared to the 2024 budget.
The budgeted expenditure for 2025 amounts to 86.4 billion francs. They are notably dedicated to financing the increase in army spending, which must increase to 1% of GDP by 2035, and climate policy, but also many other projects. New incentive measures are thus planned in connection with the climate law and the CO2 law.
700 millions
Thanks to the budgetary relief measures decided at the start of the year for an amount of more than two billion francs, the budgetary situation has improved slightly for the years 2025 and 2026, notes the government. Now, it forecasts a deficit of 700 million francs for 2025.
“It has had a certain impact, but it is not lasting,” continued the Federal Councilor. It is only thanks to the extraordinary accounting of certain expenses, such as the reception of Ukrainian refugees benefiting from protection status S for the fourth consecutive year, that the Federal Council can present a budget which meets to the requirements of the debt brake.
The 2025 budget provides for total expenditure of 1.25 billion francs for people in need of protection from Ukraine, of which 550 million will be accounted for on an ordinary basis and 700 million on an extraordinary basis. According to current estimates, the Federal Council will request another 550 million in extraordinary expenditure in 2026, then none from 2027.
For 2026, the forecasts have improved. Part of the expenditure for the area of migration will still be included in the extraordinary budget. Revenues are expected to develop more positively than expected. Finally, the Federal Council has decided to allocate the additional revenues from the OECD minimum tax to new regional promotion measures, already taken into account in the financial plan.
These revenues, estimated at 400 million francs, will be allocated from 2026 to the digital transformation of public administration, the decarbonization of businesses and the financing of growth in the field of training, research and innovation. . Currently, the need for sanitation for 2026 still amounts to at least 500 million francs.
Challenges ahead
The outlook gets worse from 2027, said Ms. Keller-Sutter, who refuted the idea of “painting the situation in black” for political reasons. The deficits are likely to reach some 2.5 billion francs.
The Confederation may have to assume significant additional costs linked to the army, the 13th AVS pension and relations with the European Union (Horizon program for research, contribution to cohesion, etc.).
The Council of States, for example, wants to give more money to the army and reach the threshold of 1% of GDP in 2030 already. “Parliament must say what priorities it wants,” commented Minister PLR.
It is therefore essential that relief measures are defined quickly. At the end of the summer, the Federal Council will receive the results of the expert group responsible for reviewing the tasks and subsidies of the Confederation. Probably in the autumn, he will broadly define the projects aimed at reducing the budget for a consultation.
