The experts consulted by the KOF remain moderately optimistic for the growth of the Swiss economy in the short and medium term.
If most forecasts have only marginally changed between the March and June editions of the periodic survey by the Zurich Academic Center for Economic Studies, clouds are gathering over the employment outlook. The estimate of the unemployment rate for the current year and the following year was thus raised by around ten basis points to 2.3% and 2.4% respectively. Over a five-year horizon, it jumped by two tenths of a percentage point to 2.5%, indicates a report released Monday.
Economic growth for the current year – excluding sporting events – was revised to 1.5%, compared to 1.4%. The pace for 2025 remains anticipated at 1.4% but the expected acceleration over five years was moderate at 1.5%, compared to 1.6%.
The propensity to invest in particular seems to be slipping in the immediate future and is expected to rebound less strongly than expected three months ago in 2025.
Inflation in 2024 remains forecast at 1.4% and is expected to fade to 1.3% (1.2%) in 2025, then 1.1% (1.0%) within five years.
Concerning monetary policy, respondents favor the scenario of a further reduction of 25 basis points in the key rate of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) over the next twelve months. The Saron rate within three months is expected at 1.32%, after 1.57% estimated in March for June. At twelve months, this reference rate should fall to 1.14%, compared to 1.17%.
The franc should weaken over three and twelve months against the euro and the dollar, without however returning to parity against the single European currency.
The June edition of the KOF consensus, the 114th of its kind, is based on the responses of 14 external specialists at the economic research center of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich (ETH Zurich).
ats, awp
