The assembly of an R5 at the Ampère factory in Douai. Photo credit Caradisiac.
What if the current agitation around future CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) standards had no reason to exist? What if automakers didn’t have to fear that the sky would fall on their heads next year? In any case, this is the thesis defended by two independent organizations.
According to this think tank and this NGO, the European auto industry will go under the radar in 2025 and in no way risks having to pay, all brands combined, nearly 15 billion in fines at the end of 2025 as it claims. But what is it about?
ACEA does not want CAFE
On January 1, Brussels decided to implement the new part of the C02 reduction programmed since 2015. On this date, cars sold in the union must not exceed 81 g of C02 emissions. But be careful: this is an average per brand. As a result, they can continue to sell more polluting thermal cars provided they can compensate them with electric ones which will lower the average. And that’s where the problem lies.
For months, manufacturers have been complaining and laying siege to Brussels and their local governments to demand that the CAFE standard not be applied. ACEA, the European union of manufacturers, is not giving up, and at its head Luca de Meo is asking Brussels to postpone the ax which must be put in place in a month and a half. If the Union turns a deaf ear, the same cannot be said for Berlin and Paris. The German chancellery is on the line of its industry, in rather bad shape.
Matignon also supports the cancellation, since Michel Barnier, who met Ursula van de Leyen yesterday, not only explained to her that he was opposed to the Mercosur agreements, in order to calm the farmers, but also to the famous auto standards, just to calm Renault down. The Prime Minister thus relays the will of his Minister of the Economy Antoine Armand, who also pleaded the cause in Brussels last week.
However, there would be no fire in the treasury lake of European manufacturers. At least when it comes to future fines. According to Jean-Philippe Hermine, who heads the think tank “Mobilities in transition”lThe brands of the old continent would easily pass the 81 g mark, « hormis Volkswagen »as he clarified to Les Échos. The NGO Transport and Environment, in its September report, says nothing else. For the organism, “Manufacturers are on track to achieve their European targets for reducing CO2 emissions”.
But what are the arguments of the two institutes, which go against what manufacturers and governments say? Jean-Philippe Hermine’s vision is full of unbridled optimism. Even more optimistic, and this is extremely rare, than the sales forecasts of Renault itself. According to the researcher, 90,000 electric R5s can be sold next year, as well as 20,000 Dacia Spring and 15,000 R4s. Enough to achieve a target of 16.6% electric in the range, taking into account stable sales of Megane and Scenic e-tech.
A wet finger forecast? In a right of response to these assertions, the group explains that “that the figures cited do not match the Renault group’s forecasts. » Would the diamond be excessively cautious about the success of its slew of new products?
Open a breach in European decisions?
Still, the French think tank is not the only one to consider that the 2025 standard will be a drain on the brands’ treasury. The transport and environment NGO is on the same line, but with another argument. For the organization, manufacturers are holding back at the end of the year, which would explain the poor sales figures for electric vehicles. They would tend to delay EV sales to reap the benefits in terms of emissions savings next year, to include them in the CAFE calculations.
The fact remains that whatever the arguments in question, we can ask ourselves, if the manufacturers actually pass the new standards with flying colors, why is the ACEA which represents them launching such an offensive? Patrice Pelata, former general manager of Renault, and now director of Safran, puts forward a hypothesis. For him, it’s a way of opening a breach. “Adjusting the 2025 deadline would de facto authorize the sector not to follow the plan set by Europe. » A way of preparing Brussels for rebellion.
