Global oil demand is expected to increase by 920,000 barrels per day this year, to reach 102.8 million barrels per day (mb/d), says the OECD Energy Agency.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) revises slightly upwards its forecasts for an increase in oil demand in 2024, while warning that the trend is towards a “significant slowdown” in the growth of black gold consumption , which could experience an excess supply in 2025, according to its monthly report published Thursday.
Global oil demand is expected to increase by 920,000 barrels per day this year, to 102.8 million barrels per day (mb/d), an upward revision of 60,000 barrels per day from the estimate. of October, indicates the OECD Energy Agency.
This adjustment is explained “largely by larger-than-expected deliveries of OECD diesel in the third quarter,” according to the IEA, which reviews its forecasts monthly depending on the economic situation.
For 2025, the estimate for growth in black gold consumption is “essentially unchanged” at less than one million barrels per day (990,000), which would bring global daily consumption to 103.8 million barrels per day. barrels.
The rate of growth in demand of less than 1 mb/d for these years 2024/2025 “marks a significant slowdown compared to the increase of 2 mb/d in 2023”, specified the IEA.
The forecast level of black gold consumption “again reflects sub-normal underlying global economic conditions”, the end of post-Covid-19 demand catch-up while “the rapid deployment” of electric vehicles “ also moderates the growth in oil consumption,” explained the IEA.
The oil market is on a downward trend due to the slowdown in China, the world’s leading oil importer, weighed down by sluggish consumption. Oil prices remain at relatively low levels. Around 06:30 GMT, a barrel of Brent from the North Sea fell by 0.61%, to $71.84.
In this bearish context, the OPEC+ alliance of oil producers decided on November 3 to postpone by one month a planned increase in production, which would not occur before January. It will hold its meeting on December 1 to review the market outlook and its production plans for 2025.
But according to IEA estimates, even if the production cuts established by OPEC+ to support prices remained in place, “global supply will exceed demand by more than a million barrels per day per year. next”.
“The global supply of oil is increasing at a sustained pace,” said the IEA, referring to the re-election of Donald Trump, who favors oil expansion. “Following the American elections”, the IEA therefore expects the United States to be the main contributor to the increase in supply from non-OPEC+ countries estimated at 1.5 mb /d in 2024/25.
