The unemployment rate has been increasing in Quebec for a year, but it continues to fall in several regions of the province despite the slowdown in the economy.
Published at 1:30 a.m.
Updated at 5:00 a.m.
The Laurentians, Mauricie and Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine are among the regions which have a lower unemployment rate than a year ago, according to the most recent data from Statistics Canada.
The unemployment rate in the Laurentides region was 6.3% in October 2023, and it fell to 3.8% in October 2024. Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine had an unemployment rate of 8, 8% a year ago, and 5.3% in October 2024.
“The regional portrait is very different from one region to another,” confirms Florence Jean-Jacob, Desjardins economist.
“Labor shortages and an aging population are to blame. The regions where the unemployment rate has fallen the most are those where labor shortages were the greatest,” she emphasizes.
The increase in the average age and the increase in retirements also explain the decline in unemployment in several regions.
Gaspésie, for example, is the region with the highest average age in Quebec.
Florence Jean-Jacob, Desjardins economist
The aging of the population is also an important reality in Mauricie, where the unemployment rate has fallen from 5.8% to 4.8% over the past year, and in Bas-Saint-Laurent, where the unemployment rate is currently by only 3%, which is much lower than the Quebec average of 5.4%.
The Desjardins economist also points out the fact that the economy creates few jobs, but that businesses are not making layoffs. “We are in an economy where there is no hiring, but no layoffs, and it is the new arrivals who are suffering from the economic slowdown. »
These new arrivals are more numerous in the cities, where the unemployment rate has been increasing for a year. In Montreal, it went from 6.4% to 8.4% in one year. In Quebec, it has increased from 2.6% to 4.1% over the past year.
Statistics Canada’s regional figures are unadjusted three-month moving averages, which differ from the monthly data published each month.
The degradation continues
The October report released Friday by Statistics Canada indicates that the job market continues to deteriorate in the country, even if the results are positive.
The Canadian economy created 15,000 jobs last month, a modest addition that contrasts with the increase of 47,000 jobs in September. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.5%.
Quebec has 6,500 more jobs and its unemployment rate increased from 5.5% to 5.7%, but it remains the lowest in the country.
The job market reflects the weakness of the Canadian economy, which has not yet felt the effect of falling interest rates.
The October report is the last before the Bank of Canada’s next key rate decision on December 11.
For Royal Bank economist Nathan Janzen, the October figures increase the urgency of a further cut in the key rate. The stability of the unemployment rate is mainly explained by the drop in the activity rate, i.e. the proportion of the population who is working or looking for work, he stressed.
This is also the opinion of economists at the National Bank. “Don’t let yourself be fooled by the stabilization of the unemployment rate,” write economists Matthieu Arseneau and Alexandra Ducharme in their analysis.
“We should not be too quick to rejoice in the stability of the unemployment rate,” they say, “because it was supported in part by a further drop in the activity rate, perhaps reflecting the discouragement of job seekers. »
According to Statistics Canada, the activity rate in October, at 64.8%, is the lowest since December 1997, with the exception of the pandemic. At 6.5%, Canada’s unemployment rate is 0.8% higher than a year ago, and there are 193,000 more unemployed people.
National Bank economists expect the job market to continue to deteriorate in the coming months.
