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Salaries are expected to rise next year in Switzerland. But although the pace is expected to slow compared to 2024, purchasing power is expected to grow due to falling inflation, according to a study by UBS bank.
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November 7, 2024 – 10:48 am
(Keystone-ATS) The 345 companies surveyed by the three-key bank should, on average, increase their remuneration by 1.4% in 2025. This is less than the 1.8% recorded this year, but thanks to the slowdown in inflation, real wages , i.e. adjusted for inflation, should increase more strongly “and almost entirely compensate for the loss of purchasing power suffered since 2022,” UBS economists detailed Thursday in their study.
Concretely, real wages are expected to increase by 0.7% in 2025, the same as this year.
However, not all employees are in the same boat, with the largest increases (+2% in nominal terms) being anticipated in the areas of IT services and telecoms, as well as energy and supply management. and waste.
The smallest increases (+1%) are on the other hand expected in retail trade, media and companies active in construction materials.
In 2024, inflation is expected to rise between 1.1% and 1.3% according to various projections. Next year, it is expected to slow to between 0.6% and 1%. In the immediate future, the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States and his promises to increase customs duties should not have an impact on inflation projections, stressed economist Maxime Botteron during a video conference.
Slight increase in unemployment rate
The improvement in purchasing power must however be qualified, due to the sharp increase in health insurance premiums of 6% on average for 2025, which is not taken into account in the calculation of the inflation rate. . “Many Swiss households should therefore still feel a drop in purchasing power,” lamented economist Florian Germanier.
The companies surveyed by UBS also noted a reduction in recruitment difficulties. While 73% of them indicated in 2023 that they had difficulty filling vacant positions, there are only 58% this year in this scenario.
The economic environment should improve next year, with Switzerland having recorded signs of stabilization in the industrial sector. “In 2025, the improvement in the European economy should boost demand for Swiss products,” which should also support Swiss exports and lead to an increase in investments.
If the gross domestic product (GDP) is to increase from 1.0% this year to 1.5% next, the unemployment rate is also expected to rise slightly. At 2.5% in 2024, it must rise to 2.8% the following year, according to projections from the Zurich bank.
