As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) lowered its key rates by 0.25 points on September 12.
This monetary easing should encourage banks to continue along this path, with regard to their credit rates, and support the recovery in credit production that has been emerging since this summer, brokers estimate.
“Very good news”
This new 0.25 point drop in the ECB’s key rates, the second of the year after that of June, comes in a context of declining inflation, which has slowed to 2.2% over a year in the euro zone, falling credit rates and sluggish economic activity in Europe.
“This is very good news for borrowers who will be able to benefit from even more attractive rates in the coming weeks.”says Julie Bachet, general manager of the broker Vousfinancer. “Even though many banks cut their rates in September, probably anticipating this ECB reduction, they should be encouraged to continue this movement until the end of the year. This easing of the ECB’s monetary policy will allow banks to continue their strategy of winning customers via credit, while maintaining decent margins.”
This is confirmed by Caroline Arnould, general manager of the broker Capfi: “Other banks were waiting for confirmation of this reduction and should therefore lower their rates in the coming weeks.”
Already decreases in September
Those that anticipated the ECB rate cuts are showing rate scales ranging from -0.10 to -0.30 points in September. On average, it is currently possible to borrow at 3.75% over 20 years.
Rates at 3% over 20 years on 1er quarter 2025?
“If the ECB continues this policy of monetary easing and makes a new reduction by the end of the year, we could see, for the best files, rates at 3% over 20 years at the end of 2024,” considers Sandrine Allonier, spokesperson for Vousfinancer. “Average rates could reach this level rather in the course of the 1er quarter 2025. »
However, at its meeting on 12 September, the ECB did not commit to further monetary easing.
“The rate on deposits, which is a reference*, has been increased to 3.50% [contre 3,75 % auparavant, NDRL]. At the same time, the institution slightly revised downwards its growth forecasts for the period 2024 to 2026, while leaving inflation projections unchanged. This should fall below the 2% target by 2026,” notes Maël Bernier, communications director and spokesperson for Meilleurtaux.
The lights are green for an easing of credit rates.
* The deposit rate is the rate at which banks are remunerated when they place their liquidity with the ECB. “Today, the concern of commercial banks is no longer to obtain money, but rather to place excess liquidity,” explains the government website Vie-publique.fr. The main policy rate is now the deposit facility with the ECB and no longer the refinancing rate. ” This is the cost at which banks buy the money they lend.
