Donald Trump’s protectionist economic policy is far from the moment to bear fruit. The trade deficit of the United States, which the American president attempts at all costs to reduce, finally crossed a new record in March, according to official data published by the Ministry of Commerce this Tuesday, May 6, while the previous record dates from January. The American trade balance – The difference between imports and exports – has widened 14 % over a month, to display a deficit of $ 140.5 billion (124 billion euros), the Ministry of Commerce reported. A worse figure than that anticipated by analysts, around $ 137 billion, according to the consensus published by Marketwatch.
Imports of goods have registered at a very high level, $ 387 billion. This suggests that companies have continued to strengthen their stocks to speed up the implementation of new customs duties by the Trump administration. The report notably mentions an important increase in imports of pharmaceutical preparations in March (+ $ 20 billion in one month).
The Republican President had warned that he would announce customs duties “Converse” April 2 during his “Liberation day”. The magnitude of the new surcharges imposed that day on the products entering the United States had exceeded all the fears. Donald Trump has partially backwards since then, applying a world rate of 10 %, except for China where taxation is still 145 % on many products.
“Companies bought in advance equipment necessary for their activity and the distributors have completed their warehouses for general public goods”, summarize the economists of Wells Fargo in a note. For the rest, “American imports will experience a hollow because the transactions which normally have taken place in the second quarter or later will have already been carried out”, Assures Carl Weinberg, chief economist at HFE.
Now that customs duties are in force, notes the economist of Nationwide Daniel Vielhaber, “We are planning a rise in inflation, which will have the effect of slowing down consumption and economic growth, which are already slowing down.”
This rush to import has already had a significant impact on the first estimate of the gross domestic product for the first quarter of 2025, announced last week in decline of 0.3 % (in annualized pace), while it had increased by 2.4 % per quarter.
Donald Trump justifies the penknife to more than half a century of liberalization of exchanges by digging the country’s trade deficit and the need to revitalize the national industry. According to his theory, increasing customs duties on products entering American soil could encourage foreign companies to come and settle there to produce, which would participate in the creation of jobs and wealth in the United States.
Update : at 4:58 p.m. with economists’ comments
