Bank analysts believe that the Strategic plan 2024-2028 constitutes a decisive turning point for the brand, with a doubly announced sales area and a rise in formats with a strong profitability lever, in particular Attack and the franchise Carrefour Express. This structural repositioning is however not yet integrated into prices according to SG, while the title has a delay (-2.1 % since the plan announcement) compared to the performance of the Masi (+31.6 %).
An underestimated market
For Société Générale, the market clearly underscores the transformation of the economic model of Label’Vie, now more agile, scalable (“scalable”) and capable of generating both organic growth and expansion of margins. The modern distribution sector is still underdeveloped in Moroccowith only 21.2 m² of sales area for 1,000 inhabitants at the end of 2024. At this rate, the national surface should double to 1.6 million m² within five yearsand Label’Vie would capture 45 % of these new openings.
A profitable rise
The bank provides 687 store openings For the group by 2028, annual growth in turnover of 15,1 % on 2025-2029, and a EBITDA margin stabilized around 9.3 % at the end of the period. If the gross margin should undergo a mixing effect, the EBIT margin would progress to 5,9 %in particular thanks to the rise of unclear formats as Supeco and the franchise Express.
A lightened model, creator of value
The Back to equity (ROE) would reach 22 % in 2028up 5.5 points, thanks to a model called “Asset Light V2.0”, combining low capital intensity, increase in volumeset Rigorous debt management Via a controlled OPCI lever. The solidity of cash flows would finance growth while gradually reducing debt.
The valuation is based on a DCF approach with a Wacc the 8.6% and a Infinite growth of 1 %the terminal value representing 65 % of business value. For SG, all the lights are green for a revaluation of the title, still unjustly abandoned by investors.
