Above all, in 1962, De Gaulle immediately responded by pronouncing the dissolution of the Assembly. What Emmanuel Macron cannot do: the Constitution prohibits him from dissolving before the expiration of a period of one year after the legislative elections resulting from his previous dissolution.
This incursion into unknown territory raises multiple procedural questions, for the adoption of budgetary texts in particular, political but also institutional: will the Fifth sink into instability and thus join the very parliamentary Third and Fourth Republics, when the lifespans of governments barely exceeded a few months?
Motion of censure: is the Barnier government living its final hours?
“The cause of ministerial instability is not due to institutions. It is due, firstly, to the absence of a majority in the National Assembly, and secondly to the behavior of political parties which refuse, in the face of this dispersion, to move compromises,” says Dominique Rousseau.
“It is not the Constitution that is in question. Its functioning is still very viable.” “Nevertheless, we realize that with the way in which it is practiced”, “partisan postures have completely recovered” their rights, adds Anne-Charlène Bezzina, lecturer at the University of Rouen.
Never since 1958 has an elected Assembly found itself so far from a majority. Majority voting helps, legislative elections have almost always made it possible to achieve absolute majorities, even against the president, as during the three cohabitations (1986-1988, 1993-1995, 1997-2002).
Towards proportional?
Since the adoption of the five-year term in 2000, and the presidential-legislative alignment that followed, the legislative elections have even amplified the results of the presidential elections. Until 2022, Emmanuel Macron re-elected finds himself dispossessed of the absolute majority.
But even in such a situation, the Constitution is well made, full of provisions allowing the executive to maintain control: no compulsory investiture vote, repeated use of 49.3, new deliberations possible in the Assembly, etc…
Michel Barnier triggers 49.3: a very high-risk maneuver
Even going so far as to avoid forming a coalition to ensure an absolute majority? This is the option taken in 2022, despite the warnings of Édouard Philippe. And the announced fall of the Barnier government, despite the appointment of LR leaders to Matignon and various key positions, looks in this respect like a failed act.
“We looked at the problem in reverse. In other countries, we appoint what we call a facilitator, who brings together the parliamentary groups to see if they agree on a government program. Then a Prime Minister is designated. There, we did the opposite, we designated Michel Barnier as Prime Minister without there having been a prior discussion on the content of the government program”, notes Dominique Rousseau.
How long will the next government manage to last? Impossible to know. Hence the calls for the president’s resignation? “This is not the solution: the new elected president would find himself with the same current chamber, and the impossibility of dissolving it until July,” dismisses Mr. Rousseau, who sees it as “a very French Bonapartist reflex”.
Another avenue mentioned to unblock the situation: establishing proportional representation in legislative elections. “Today, the two-round majority vote is blocking. Everyone stays in their own lane. With proportional representation, we are obliged to enter into contracts with our neighbors. Proportional representation allows us to learn democracy,” believes Mr. Rousseau. With the undisguised hope, in the central bloc, of “detaching” the Socialist Party from its alliance with La France insoumise.
