Voting intentions three days before the first round grouped in our compiler

POLITICS – The blitzkrieg is (almost) already coming to an end. Friday at midnight, the 4,010 candidates and their entourages will no longer be able to try to change the minds of the millions of voters called on Sunday June 30 to vote for the first round of the early legislative elections.

Until then, there are still some leaflets, rallies in the constituencies but also one last big televised debate. After the one broadcast Tuesday on TF1, France 2 is organizing its own this Thursday June 27 at 9 p.m. Gabriel Attal for the presidential majority, Jordan Bardella for the National Rally meet with a representative of the New Popular Front: Olivier Faure (PS).

With all due respect to the Republicans who took legal action to add to these confrontations, there are indeed three camps facing each other in this election. This is also evident in the polls of voting intentions which have multiplied since the announcement of the dissolution on June 9 by Emmanuel Macron. It is particularly visible in our compiler presented below, which presents the latest voting intentions carried out by several institutes (Ifop, Elabe, Opinonway, Harris, Odoxa…).

The RN in the lead

After its triumphant victory in the Europeans, the far right continues its lead. With more than 36% (a score which continues to increase), the National Rally is credited with double its score in the 2022 legislative elections; he had then reached 18.7% nationally, qualifying in more than 200 constituencies. A total that could easily double on Sunday.

Built in record time, the left-wing alliance formed by the New Popular Front also has momentum going for it even if its score (28.5%) seems to be declining in recent days. Not only is it close to the total left-wing scores in the European elections (31.5%) but it is credited with 3 points more than NUPES in 2022 (25.7%). Also, it is well ahead of the presidential majority.

Taken by surprise by the dissolution announced by Emmanuel Macron and weighed down by a balance sheet which has already caused the loss of Valérie Hayer in the European elections, the Renaissance-Modem-Horizon alliance painfully exceeds 20% (20.4%), far from 25.6% of 2022.

An Assembly without an absolute majority?

Projecting these results onto a possible second round is complicated to the extent that unlike the European elections, the legislative elections are in reality 577 local elections where the configurations vary and where the location of the candidates plays a decisive role. The level of participation will also play an important role since a candidate who came third but obtained at least 12.5% ​​of those registered. With participation estimated this Thursday at 63% (Ipsos survey for The world), it is necessary to obtain 19.9% ​​to maintain itself and give rise to a triangular.

Therefore, not all polling institutes try to make projections of the future National Assembly. Ifop and Harris who do this regularly give a far-right bloc with an average score slightly higher than 250 seats; this is three times more than in the outgoing Assembly (88 deputies) but insufficient at this stage to obtain an absolute majority (289 seats). The New Popular Front is credited with 165 seats while the majority does not exceed 100 deputies. Fourth, the Republicans who obtain less than 8% of the votes are given around 40 deputies.

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