While the first peaks of 35°C are expected in the Mediterranean South this Tuesday, is the risk of a heatwave confirmed for the end of the month? Will summer (finally) take hold in France? Discover our latest analysis.
Due to the presence of a cold drop (small depression with cold air at altitude) in the vicinity of Portugal, very hot air rises towards France this mid-week. It mainly concerns the Mediterranean basin, the west and the northwest remaining away from this summer atmosphere.
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Then, As the weekend approaches, this famous depression will move back towards France and will circulate right across the country. Thus, temperatures will drop everywhere and no region will escape precipitation. Until then, these are rather stormy waves which will organize from the west towards the central regions. These storms should also be monitored due to the risk of violent phenomena.
First very hot weather of the season
If we’re not talking about a heatwave for this week marking the official start of summer (the solstice takes place this Thursday), thermometers will still soar in the south-east and as far as the Rhône valley. So, this Tuesday afternoon promises to be very hot from Bresse to Provence as well as Corsica. The 30°C mark will be well exceeded, with possible peaks at 35 or even 36°C locally towards Vaucluse, Bouches-du-Rhône and the west of the island of beauty.
The threshold for very high heat (= temperature reaching or exceeding 35°C under shelter) will thus be reached for the first time this year in France (excluding the sirocco in Corsica on June 8). Rebelote on Wednesday with new peaks of 35°C possible locally in Corsica-du-Sud. These values will be maintained on the island of beauty on Thursday and Friday as well.
Meanwhile, values will fall in other regions due to the advance of the cold drop. If this will destabilize the air mass with almost widespread showers and storms, it will also have the effect of lowering the mercury which will even temporarily return below seasonal norms…
The last days of the month to watch closely
It now seems increasingly likely that the anticyclone will return in force next week. According to certain scenarios, it could rise towards Germany, then directing a flow from the south to the southeast over the country. In these conditions, heat would set in and temperatures would then increase day after day. This is the scenario that we favor at the moment.
After a weekend with temperatures that were barely seasonal or even below normal (except in the southeast), the heat will set in from next Monday with peaks at 26-27°C in Aquitaine. During this time, it will continue in the Mediterranean South. This moderate heat will reach the Loire Valley on Tuesday while the high heat threshold (30°C) will be locally reached in the south.
Heatwave between Turkey and Greece with more than 40°C! Can the heat spread to France soon?
Temperatures will continue to increase over the days, both in the north and in the south. Thursday June 27, peaks of 30°C will be possible in the central regions while the next day, 35°C could increase in the southern regions. Despite a distant deadline, the reliability regarding the installation of summer conditions is good. It will remain to determine the intensity of the heat and therefore the possibility of a heatwave…
