A look back in 5 chapters at an explosive week, where blows were exchanged in the four corners of the French political spectrum.
1. The thunderclap:Jordan Bardella
The polls predicted it. However, since the discovery of the results of the French vote in the European elections on Sunday June 9, 2024, it is a real earthquake that is shaking France on its foundations. In the land of Enlightenment, Jordan Bardella plunged democracy into darkness: with 31.37% of the votes cast, the lead candidate of the National Rally (RN) propelled the far right to a historic peak. For his supporters, it is obviously ecstasy. For others, a disaster.
Another sign of the democratic decay which characterizes France today, barely more than one in two French people (51.50%) traveled for the occasion, which represents an… increase compared to the attendance rate recorded during the previous election (in 2019)!
2. The twist of theater: Emmanuel Macron
In the event of defeat, the campaign team of Renaissance (RE), President Macron’s party, had warned that the latter would pose “a strong gesture“. Shortly after the announcement of the results, being able only to note the scathing disavowal recorded by “his” list (14.60% of the votes), the Head of State took the floor to announce his decision to dissolve the Assembly national, and to quickly call early elections: June 30, 2024 (first round) and July 7 (second round).
Justifying his decision by the fact that the outcome of the vote “is not a good result for the parties defending Europe” and “the rise of nationalists and demagogues is a danger for our nation but also for our Europe, for France’s place in Europe and in the world“, Emmanuel Macron thus surprised everyone, and therefore decided to appeal to the democratic surge of the French.
3. The stab: Marion Maréchal
The head of state’s resounding decision had barely been announced, and the major maneuvers began directly. And this, on all sides. Including to the right of the extreme right, where the Reconquest party today threatens to implode. The fault lies with the head of the party’s European list, Marion Maréchal, the niece of Marine Le Pen.
Credited with 5.47% at the end of the election, the granddaughter of the founder of the National Front surprised everyone, starting with the leader of her own party, the sulphurous Éric Zemmour, by announcing her intention to get closer to the RN, the big winner of the European election, with a view to the early legislative elections.
“This is the world record for betrayal“, protested Éric Zemmour. Enough to add an additional layer to the pyramid of dissensions which are now weighing down Reconquest. Or rather, which were weighing down. Because after Marion Maréchal, flanked by 3 other newly elected MEPs, met her aunt and Bardella with a view to a possible alliance, Éric Zemmour made the decision to exclude the 4 troublemakers from his party Who found themselves groggy: because in the process, the leader of the RN announced to refuse this outstretched hand (or rather this offer of. services) by Maréchal and his clique, undoubtedly, a way of standing out from those who are even further to the right than him. Not stupid, in a France which is leaning more and more to the right without yet daring to accept its extremity.
4. The poker move: the Popular Front
On the left too, Emmanuel Macron’s resounding announcement shook things up. Fragmented for years, it has taken the step, this time, of unifying under the banner of a “Popular Front”, bringing together the various socialist, environmentalist and even communist factions which make up the French political landscape. Something to surprise, again. Starting with President Macron himself, judging this alliance “indecent“.
The objective? Block the right. To the far right, even. And form an alliance which thus includes La France Insoumise, the Socialist Party, the Greens of Europe Ecology, as well as the Communist Party. “In each constituency, we want to support unique applications from the first round“, carrying “a program of rupture“, indicated the various stakeholders in the project, who on Sunday compiled 31.58% of the French electorate (13.83% for the PS-Place Publique; 9.89% for LFI; 5.50% for EL- EELV; 2.36% for the United Left), or barely 0.21% more than the RN, alone. Enough to put an end to the rout of “the left” in France?
5. The stroke of madness: Eric Ciotti
But the prize for this week’s developments on the French political scene undoubtedly goes to the Republicans (LR). Ancestral party founded by General De Gaulle, it found itself at the center of an improbable melodrama, its president, Éric Ciotti, announcing his intention to respond to the Popular Front with an alliance with the National Rally of Jordan Bardella! Jumping on the improbable ball, the latter immediately announced an agreement with “around ten LR deputies“.
It was enough for the Republican right party, in its vast majority at least, to castigate this affront to the ideological roots of the party and to be indignant at the strategy implemented by its president, demanding his head. He then barricaded himself in his office, refusing his dismissal in a scenario worthy of a B-TV series.
At the time of writing these lines, Éric Ciotti, abandoned on all sides, ridiculed by his family, nevertheless clings to his office to which he refuses to give up the keys, while waiting for Justice to rule on this improbable case.
In the space of a week, therefore, a real earthquake shook the French political scene, moving the lines, revealing certain personalities, offering others the opportunity to emerge.
On June 30, the French will be invited to go to the polling stations for the first round of the early legislative election. With what result? According to the latest polls, the RN could further increase its lead over its pursuers. And could, – should even – be able to advance to the second round. Enough to launch Jordan Bardella towards Matignon and the post of next Prime Minister? Nothing is less sure. Because if the Republican right directly blocked the designs of its own president, the now united left hopes to fight back to offer itself a second round that only yesterday seemed inaccessible.
But nothing is done. Because this left will not only have to beat the Republican right and everything that can still be found on the political spectrum separating it from the National Rally, but above all it will have to start by agreeing on a program and common lists. Then count on the famous “republican barrier” and try in this way to bring together all French people hostile to far-right ideas. Which remain, at present, in the overwhelming majority. But who knows what new twists and turns the next few weeks will bring?
