Currently, the German Federal Armed Forces [Bundeswehr] have around 180,000 soldiers in their ranks. Shortly after the start of the war in Ukraine, as part of the “Zeitenwende” [« changement d’époque »]and while conscription was suspended in 2011, the German government set itself the objective of increasing this workforce to 203,000 personnel by 2031, mainly for the benefit of the Heer [force terrestre].
However, during the Vilnius summit in July 2023, NATO members adopted a “new generation of regional defense plans, established on the basis of existing strategic plans and domain plans”, in order to improve the deterrence and defense of the Alliance against “all threats, including without or on short notice”, according to a so-called “360-degree” approach.
However, for these plans to work, the Allies have made a commitment to provide NATO with “the forces, capabilities and resources necessary for the full range of its operations, missions and activities”. Which means that, for Germany, the format of the Bundeswehr as planned for 2031 will be insufficient. This is in fact what the weekly Der Spiegel revealed, based on confidential documents from the German Ministry of Defense.
NATO requirements for land forces [divisions, brigades, soutien] translate “into an additional need of 75,000 soldiers for the Bundeswehr”, argued Der Spiegel, referring to a report entitled “Operational preparation and support for the armed forces”.
Another internal document, also mentioned by the weekly, estimates that NATO plans “would require a workforce greater than 272,000 soldiers”. According to a senior military Source contacted by Reuters, the Bundeswehr may have to go even further given that Germany would be a “transit zone and major logistics center” in the event of a conflict.
These documents were mentioned while the German Minister of Defense, Boris Pistorius, engaged in a showdown with Christian Lindner, his colleague from Finance, to obtain a budgetary extension of at least 6.5 billion euros for the financial year 2025. And this while the Bundeswehr Special Fund, endowed with 100 billion euros, is expected to be exhausted in 2028.
Beyond the financial aspects, the Bundeswehr will have to overcome the problems it is currently experiencing in terms of recruitment. The number of candidates for recruitment is struggling to take off, while the rate of termination of contract by recruits remains at a high level [30 % environ]. And that’s without taking into account demographic developments. “By 2050, there will be 12% fewer people in the 15-24 age group,” Mr. Pistorius has already underlined. Hence the idea of reestablishing conscription, drawing inspiration from the model in force in Sweden, where the armed forces only retain the conscripts they need, if possible on a voluntary basis.
The return of conscription would also make it possible to increase the number of “qualified” reservists to at least 60,000. “The reserve, as a whole, must also be trained and equipped, as during the Cold War, so that it can reinforce or replace active troops in combat. […] I am convinced that we must adapt the reserve to the current security policy challenges,” declared General Andreas Hoppe, Deputy Commander of the Bundeswehr, in the pages of Spiegel.
