In Germany, Olaf Scholz refuses early elections

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A damaged election poster shows German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Frankfurt, Germany, Monday June 10, 2024. MICHAEL PROBST / AP

The suspense quickly ended. Asked about the hypothesis of early legislative elections after the disastrous results obtained by the parties of Olaf Scholz’s coalition in the European elections on Sunday June 9, the spokesperson for the German government assured that this was not the case. question : “The date of the next elections is set for fall 2025 and we plan to stick to it”declared Steffen Hebestreit, Monday June 10, affirming that“at no time, not even for a second, was it considered to organize new elections in Germany”.

Unlike the French, the Germans will therefore not return to the polls in the coming weeks. However, this is what several leaders of the conservative opposition – as well as some editorialists – demanded as soon as the first estimates were announced giving the CDU-CSU well in the lead (30%, + 1.1 points compared to 2019). ), ahead of the far-right AfD party (15.9%, +4.9) and the three components of the “traffic light” coalition in power in Berlin: the Social Democratic Party (SPD) of Mr. Scholz ( 13.9%, – 1.9), the Greens (11.9%, – 8.6) and the Liberal Democrats of the FDP (5.2%, – 0.2).

“The same thing must happen as in France, where Macron responded to those who demanded new elections”declared the head of the Bavarian CSU, Markus Söder, on Monday. “Germany also needs a new start. The coalition no longer has the confidence of the population. We therefore need new elections as quickly as possible”he added, asking the chancellor to“have the same courage as Gerhard Schröder” : in 2005, after the debacle of the SPD in the regional elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, the chancellor requested the confidence of the Bundestag which refused it, which led the President of the Republic, Horst Köhler, to dissolve it this, causing early legislative elections.

Read also | Article reserved for our subscribers European elections: disowned by German voters, Scholz under pressure to pave the way for early legislative elections

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Mr. Scholz decided not to take such a risk. On Monday, the leaders of the three parties in his coalition met, each on their own, to learn the lessons of the election. In the SPD, which lost half of its voters between the 2021 legislative elections and the European elections on Sunday, the general secretary, Kevin Kühnert, is convinced: “People want to see us more combative. » Concretely, this means that“an austerity budget to the detriment of social cohesion will not be possible with social democracy in power”he added.

The Greens, stunned

The message is directly addressed to the FDP and its president, Christian Lindner, the Federal Minister of Finance. However, he recalled on Monday that “the coalition parties have committed not to increase taxes and to respect the debt brake”, this constitutional device which restricts the public deficit to 0.35% of gross domestic product. While the FDP risks, in 2025, not reaching the 5% necessary to be represented in the Bundestag, Mr. Lindner wants more than ever to be the uncompromising guardian of budgetary orthodoxy. While waiting for the council of ministers on July 3, during which the 2025 finance bill must be adopted, which provides for nearly 40 billion less spending compared to 2024, the battle of arbitration promises to be tough. Among the points of friction is notably the Bürgergeld, the citizens’ allowance for the long-term unemployed, created in 2022 by the Scholz government, but which the FDP already wants to reform, believing that it does not sufficiently encourage job seekers to look for work.

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