“We will put to the vote all bills that cannot be postponed,” Mr. Scholz said.
He cited in particular a planned increase in income for employees from January, the rapid implementation of the rules of the new common European asylum system and immediate measures to support the ailing German industry, which he discussed currently with businesses, unions and employers’ federations.
Uncertainty reigns around the 2025 federal budget, the preparation of which is at the origin of the current crisis which has led to dissension between the Liberals and the left within the government coalition.
It will have difficulty being adopted due to lack of a majority in Parliament, and in this case provisional management would apply from January.
Initially, only expenses necessary for the functioning of administrations and imposed by law would be maintained. In practice, however, the Ministry of Finance could authorize ministries to use each month a percentage of the appropriations from the draft budget which has not yet been adopted.
The question of trust on January 15
Faced with the political blockage and the breakup of his majority, the chancellor called on the deputies of the Bundestag to decide on January 15 whether they want early legislative elections to be held before the date scheduled in principle in September 2025. He will submit to a vote of confidence and if, as is likely, he loses it, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier will have 21 days to dissolve the Bundestag, with new elections to take place no later than 60 days After.
This could then be the case “at the end of March at the latest”, indicated Olaf Scholz, in a speech on Wednesday evening.
Is a “red-green” minority government possible?
Without Lindner’s Liberals, the Scholz government is missing 91 deputies. With the 207 social democratic parliamentarians and the 117 environmentalists, he only has 324 votes. However, to pass legislative texts, it needs 367. A red-green coalition will not be able to pass laws alone. He will have to find support elsewhere on a case-by-case basis.
Germany has already had minority governments twice, in 1966 under conservative Chancellor Ludwig Erhard and in 1982 under social democrat Helmut Schmidt. Both only lasted a few weeks.
Ludwig Erhard was replaced by another conservative, Kurt Georg Kiesinger, who managed to form a grand coalition with the Social Democrats.
As for the Social Democratic Chancellor Helmut Schmidt, his government – where he was already in conflict with his liberal partner – was overthrown by a vote of no confidence at the end of which the Christian Democrat Helmut Kohl became Chancellor.
What will the opposition do?
For every piece of legislation, Scholz’s red-green minority government will need a partner.
Friedrich Merz’s conservatives, currently favorites in the polls, have already ruled out giving their votes to the Scholz government, except in certain special cases.
The far-right AfD party, which won record results in recent regional and local elections in the east of the country, has also ruled out supporting a red-green government in principle.
The radical left, die Linke, and the few members of the left-wing populist party BSW have too few representatives to really support the red-green coalition. Which bodes very difficult weeks ahead for Germany.
