The gap is narrowing
Since the beginning of August, Kamala Harris has been leading the race in the polls. On August 5, the gap was only 0.2 points but it has widened since then and on September 21 and 22, Joe Biden’s vice-president was 2.2 points ahead on average. Since then, it has managed to maintain this lead of 1.8 to 2.2 points without taking off. But this gap has tended to narrow in recent days, as evidenced by the graph below. According to the latest data, it was only 1.6 points on average in favor of the Democratic candidate on October 16, 1.5 points on October 17, and 1.4 points on October 18.
Harris’ meager lead is not enough
This meager lead is not enough to ensure Kamala Harris victory in the presidential election. The latest projections of the number of electors who could vote for the Democrat, according to the site RealClearPolitics.com, have not changed since the end of September.
According to these projections, as of October 14, the Democrat was guaranteed to obtain 191 electoral votes and probably 24 additional voters, making 215 in total. Donald Trump would have the votes of 131 electors and probably those of 88 additional electors, for a total of 219 electors. As a reminder, 270 electors are needed to be elected President of the United States out of a total of 538.
It is still difficult to define the choice of 104 major voters, undecided people whom the two candidates must convince to win.
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